Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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768 FXUS61 KRLX 250624 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 224 AM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for showers and storms prevail through today. Additional rounds of rain possible late in the week into the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 140 AM Wednesday... The focus today will be on when thunderstorms start to infiltrate the area. The current thinking is that the beginning of the morning should be quiet, but things will start to ramp up with the instability on the rise and along with abundant wind shear which will allow for thunderstorm activity to take place through the early to mid/late afternoon. Then thunderstorm potential should wane until at least tonight where storms could continue to ignite along the frontal boundary that is quasi-stationary to our west. A closed upper low will move into the region and setup along the boundary and help support the boundary and consequently support more shower and storm activity by introducing more energy and vorticity into the equation. Not seeing any opportunity for breaks in cloud coverage to support more instability equating to stronger thunderstorms but one cannot rule that out. However, the forecast keeps us under overcast skies with showers on and off throughout the daytime, therefore temperatures will only reach seasonable today. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Still looking a little drier overall on Thursday as upper low continues to sag south across the Lower Mississippi River Valley, taking bulk of moisture south and west with it. Precipitation, and winds, will ramp back up again for Friday as the remnants of Tropical Storm Helene move onshore and northward towards the region, eventually weakening and becoming absorbed into upper low across Lower MS Valley Friday evening. Ample moisture, with PW values progged to rise to 2 inches or more across the area, will help to provide some beneficial rain to the area, particularly across the mountains from upslope effects. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 225 PM Tuesday... Unsettled weather will continue in the extended period as the upper low continues to spread moisture northward into the area, with increasing chances for precipitation as we head into next week and the low gradually lifts northeast, eventually opening into a wave as it moves through the area. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Wednesday... The sites that are forecast to fog this morning are already getting into lower CIGs such as BKW who is BKN008 currently with gusting to 20KT. Have EKN/CRW getting fogged in as well but their CIGs/VIS have not started to drop. Those sites will fight off the fog by 13/14Z, then endure some borderline MVFR/VFR CIGs through the afternoon with the possibility of seeing some thunderstorms. The rest of the sites will continue to lower in height getting into MVFR for the afternoon with the chance of some thunderstorm activity. By evening thunderstorm potential will wane and those borderline CIGs will still be around until fog starts to impact most sites for the overnight. The frontal boundary to our west is quasi-stationary, therefore the possibility of shower activity overnight will exist going into tomorrow morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms may vary from forecast. Location, timing and intensity of low stratus/patchy fog overnight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 09/25/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M L H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M M M M H M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L L M M L L L L M PKB CONSISTENCY H M M M M M H H L L H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L H H H M M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in fog Thursday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JZ