340
FXUS61 KRLX 111709
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
109 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps warm and dry conditions through Thursday.
Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. Becoming hot
and muggy to end the week and start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 104 PM Tuesday...

A high pressure center moves overhead tonight, providing a relaxed
pressure gradient and mostly clear skies. These ingredients are
ideal for radiational cooling to take place tonight. Local
soundings show very dry air aloft showing substance inversion
and a radiational cooling inversion at most sites. This will
allow for temperatures to drop few degrees below normal,
generally in the lower 50s lowlands, into the mid 40s higher
elevations.

NBM suggests dense fog along the western foothills, central and
southern coalfields of WV. Therefore, expecting areas of dense
fog developing mainly along the river valley during overnight
into early Wednesday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate by
9 AM Wednesday. High pressure prevails Wednesday with dry
conditions and warm temperatures, generally in the lower 80s
lowlands, ranging into the mid 60s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Tuesday...

Dry weather, courtesy of dominating high pressure, prevails
through the forecast period. Height rises will yield a daily
increase in afternoon high temperatures, with some spots in the
lowlands cresting to 90 degrees on Thursday. Coupled with
increasing moisture, humidity levels will also give rise to
muggier conditions for the second half of the work week.

A weak cold front is progged to encroach from the north late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Light showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will begin to impede on our
northwestern zones by the conclusion of the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1205 PM Tuesday...

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures will take hold for
Saturday behind the front. Conditions will become increasingly hot
and humid by the end of the week into early next week, as upper
heights build, and a warm front moves through the region, with dew
points surging across the area, possibly into the upper 60s to lower
70s. This combined with temperatures forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s across the lowlands, particularly on Monday, will result
in heat indices nearing 100. In addition, shower and thunderstorm
activity looks to increase across the area during the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM Tuesday...

High pressure keeps dry weather conditions under near calm flow
through the period. The exception may be for afternoon breezes
gusting up to 17 knots due to differential heating. Otherwise,
afternoon cu about 4,000 feet will prevail across the southern
coalfields and eastern mountains, dissipating around sunset.

Ideal radiational cooling night on tap, should allow for IFR/LIFR
dense fog development mainly along the river valleys past 07-08Z
tonight. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 12-13Z Wednesday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog overnight tonight could be more dense
than currently advertised.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ