Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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645 FXUS61 KRLX 110140 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 940 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry this week with warming trend. Hot temperatures expected for the end of the week. Chance for showers and isolated storms on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 940 PM Monday... Made a few adjustments to PoPs to better reflect the progression of the last few showers -- which are currently tracking east across the mountains. As of 710 PM Monday... Isolated showers, currently moving through the eastern half of the area, will depart to the east this evening. Have freshened up temperatures for the evening as current observations have been trending cooler than anticipated. Otherwise, the forecast generally remains on track. As of 1150 AM Monday... Upper shortwave and weak surface front will cross the area this afternoon with isolated showers and possibly storms developing as it does so. Wave will move to the south and east of the area tonight, with at least some partial clearing, although higher terrain may hold onto some lower clouds overnight. Areas that do clear will see the formation of valley fog overnight, with high pressure building in and light winds. Tuesday looks to be dry, with high pressure in control. Can`t completely rule out a brief passing shower from combination of heating and weak ripples aloft, but overall, atmosphere looks to be dry and stable, thus expecting a dry, sunny day. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 205 PM Monday... High pressure keeps the weather dry through Thursday. Warming trend starts Wednesday with highs projected to be in the 70s and 80s for most. Thursday showcases even warmer temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s for the lowlands; mid 70s to mid 80s across the mountains. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1215 PM Monday... The long-term period looks rather sultry and muggy as the work week closes up and the weekend opens store. High pressure will remain nearby Friday morning. Temperatures on Friday will be hot with upper 80s and low 90s expected across the lowlands. The mountains will see mid 70s to the upper 80s. A weak cold front will move through during the late afternoon and evening allowing for chances of some showers or an isolated thunderstorm, but this will mostly be confined to the northern lowlands and mountains as a surface low looks to form along the front. High pressure will swiftly move in behind the front Saturday paired with warm moist flow from the Gulf to reinforce hot and humid conditions. Temperatures on Sunday are currently projected by blended guidance to be in the mid to upper 90s for the lowlands. Other model guidance also predicts similar outcomes. A stationary front will approach from the south Sunday and then move overhead on Monday. That said, kept chance PoPs across the southern portions of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 710 PM Monday... VFR is expected outside of isolated showers this evening. These showers should depart to the east in the next couple of hours. During the night, winds calm and cloud cover gradually clears which may allow areas of valley fog to develop. MVFR or worse CIGs/VIS will be possible where fog forms. Additional MVFR/IFR restrictions to flight conditions could occur in low stratus along the mountains. Fog and low stratus should dissipate between 12-14Z, allowing VFR conditions to return across the area for the remainder of the TAF period. Light north to northwest winds are expected during the day Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and intensity of fog and low stratus tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 06/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L H H H AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... Valley fog possible Wednesday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JLB/LTC NEAR TERM...SL/JLB SHORT TERM...LTC LONG TERM...LTC AVIATION...JLB