559
FXUS61 KRLX 181456
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1056 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system originating from the Atlantic brings rain
showers and unsettled weather across the area through midweek.
Mainly dry, quiet weather comes back Friday through weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1055 AM Wednesday...

Sent a quick update to adjust down sky grids per latest
satellite imagery showing broken to scattered skies over some
portions of the area. Also, adjusted down hourly temperatures
as they were slow to increase due to abundant cloudiness. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Remnants of the quasi-tropical low pressure system #8 will
meander about just south of our area inching toward the
Atlantic. The parent upper level closed low will drive further
north than the surface low and station itself right overhead of
the area. This feature will keep slightly unsettled weather
across much of the area today but will wane by this early
evening.

Less cloud coverage by the afternoon will allow temperatures to
exceed slightly higher than yesterday with most of the lowlands
potentially surpassing the 80 degree mark with the higher
elevations right around the mid 70`s and slightly cooler along
the mountains. East-southeasterly flow will provide some
potential activity along the mountains and east from there with
the highest chances for a shower and possible storm this mid
afternoon. The rest of the area will struggle to get any kind
of rain amounts due to downsloping from boundary layer flow
drying out the lowlands somewhat.

Sufficient CAPE, especially during the afternoon when clouds
start to break up a bit, will allow for the potential of
thunderstorm activity but elected to have it only diurnal. This
equated to cutting probability off right in the early evening
and any activity should only be confined to the mountains and
will likely be very isolated in nature. The upper low turns into
an open wave and shifts off toward the northeast by the
overnight hours into early morning quieting down shower activity
going into the morning with upper level ridging moving in from
the west during the next period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

A decaying low pressure system continues to lose its influence
on the area as it drifts away. Showers should be confined to
areas in and near the mountains Thursday, with the mid/upper-
level component of the system nearby to the east. Breaks of sun
should allow enough diurnal destabilization for an afternoon
mountain thunderstorm as well. With precipitation having become
diurnally driven, there is a quick shutoff of PoPs on sunset
Thursday evening.

A dearth of cloud and wind Thursday night will allow areas of
fog to form, particularly in areas lucky enough to get rain.

High pressure wedging in from the northeast beneath mid/upper-
level northwest flow will provide dry weather Friday, with fog
possible again Friday night.

Less cloud and wind allow high temperatures to climb above
normal, while lows settle to about normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 AM Wednesday...

Surface high pressure continues to wedge down the east side of
the Appalachians this weekend, while mid/upper-level ridging
builds in from the southwest. This should provide dry weather.
However, weak mid/upper-level disturbances riding over top of
the ridge and down the east aside of it will bring patchy cloud,
and models do output light, sporadic precipitation amounts.

For the start of the new work week, mid/upper-level ridging
flattens and drifts east, opening the door wider for short wave
troughs to move in from the west. Models vary on trough
amplification in the middle of the country next week, ahead of a
west coast ridge. Nonetheless, with warm advection, and,
eventually a cold front, depending upon the degree of pattern
amplification, this brings the next chance for rain. Rainfall
amounts should be light through the long term period, though.

After very warm afternoons this weekend, highs settle back
toward normal during the early portion of the new work week,
while lows remain near or slightly above normal this period.
Minimum afternoon RH percentages will drop into the 20s and 30s
across a bulk of the territory Friday through Sunday. Winds
look light enough to mitigate fire weather headlines though.
Minimum afternoon RH values look to climb during the early
portion of the new work week, with most locations getting back
into the 40s and 50s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM Wednesday...

MVFR cloud decks are filtering in affecting BKW today. This
will be the theme for today while through the afternoon most
sites may see a MVFR deck at times or for most of the time for
BKW, but it should not last long as clouds will continue to
lift by mid afternoon and scatter out by the late
afternoon/early evening. VFR should be back in control by the
late afternoon, very early evening at the latest.

During the afternoon shower potential will exist for mainly the
mountain sites and the western sites may not see much if any
activity besides a lone isolated shower possibly. Any showers
will be light in nature and should not take down VIS too much,
if any. The chances for shower and thunderstorm activity are
very low and kept little mention of thunderstorms at EKN/BKW
since they would be very isolated and even lower in
probability.

Overnight confidence on fog forming is very low even though
guidance has the entire area getting socked in with low stratus
and dense fog. Thinking just enough northeasterly flow, cloud
coverage and how dry we still are from not getting much rain and
not expecting much today, if any for much of the area that fog
formation may be deterred so left out restrictions as of now.
The next shifts may have to reevaluate with newer guidance to
see if the fog is possible or not.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium today. Low overnight/morning.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Lower cloud decks could sneak into the
mountain sites such as EKN/BKW that would lower their flight
category to IFR or lower. Fog formation is uncertain for
tomorrow morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...

Areas of IFR ceilings will be possible across the mountains
again overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JZ