381
FXUS61 KRLX 220619
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
219 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and hot today. Unsettled weather returns late tonight into
the new work week, bringing beneficial rainfall back into the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Satellite imagery early this morning reveals river valley fog
growing in coverage and intensity across northeast West Virginia
and along the southern Ohio River Valley. These two areas were
noted to have received measurable rainfall on Saturday from a
cold front and will likely festering through the predawn hours
into daybreak this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory could be
warranted later on this morning if half mile to quarter mile
visibilities continue down into our more populated areas.

The frontal boundary planted directly over the forecast area
early this morning is progged to shift slightly northward today
as a warm front. This will place the Central Appalachians in the
warm sector of an encroaching disturbance slated to arrive late
tonight into early Monday morning. In the meantime, afternoon
temperatures in the Tri-State area and into the central lowlands
will once again topple over the 90 degree mark.

Minimum relative humidity values will bottom out into the 20 to
30 percent range during peak heating hours this afternoon in
the lower elevations and down into the 30 to 40 percent range
along the mountains and southern coalfields. This will be the
last day through the foreseeable future for these low RH values
as low level moisture becomes present over the next several
days. We should lack the wind component today when it comes to
fire weather concerns.

A low pressure system tracking through the Ohio Valley today
will invade the forecast area by dusk this evening. Clouds will
first arrive this evening, followed by a line of broken showers
and thunderstorms late tonight into the overnight hours. This
marks the revival of unsettled weather for the start of the new
work week and brings beneficial rainfall to the area. Within
this portion of the forecast, QPF totals range from a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch across southeast Ohio and
eastern Kentucky, where POPs will first arrive overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Ridging will begin to flatten and pivot east of our area at the
beginning of the period as a cold front pushes east into the Ohio
Valley. Low pressure associated with the warm frontal boundary will
bring the potential for showers/storms starting late Sunday night
into Monday and Monday night. High temperatures Monday will be in
the low to mid 80`s across the lowlands and as low as the low 60`s
across the mountains with high humidity as moisture plume advects
into the region from the south.

The system should provide some much needed rain for the area as we
continue to experience extreme drought. Rainfall amounts should
generally be under an inch per WPC QPF but isolated higher totals
are possible across the higher elevations to the east and any areas
that see repeated or heavier rainfall associated with thunderstorms.
There is also a very small risk for excessive rainfall, mainly along
and northwest of the Ohio River in our Ohio counties, which with our
drought conditions would seem to be merely beneficial.

SPC highlights no risk area for severe weather at this time but
there is a marginal to the west of our area that has been
matriculating eastward and could include western portions of the CWA
in the future, especially with instability trending upward (SBCAPE
1000-1500 J/kg) and increased bulk shear around 35kts for Monday per
12Z GFS and Euro so it will be something to keep an eye on as we
inch closer to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Low pressure and associated cold front will be approaching the area
at the beginning of this period sometime Tuesday, bringing
additional chances for some showers/storms. Forcing will be
increased with this feature and as such an increase in the potential
for showers and storms Tuesday compared to Monday. Instability
appears to also be around the same, perhaps a little higher in our
western lowlands compared to Monday, but it is still a little ways
out and any antecedent cloud cover or ongoing precipitation would
potentially hinder greater instability. Still something that should
be watched as the system approaches early this week but overall
dynamics aren`t that supportive outside of some instability.

QPF for Tuesday through early Thursday seems to be trending upwards,
especially across the lowlands where the Euro now places most of the
coal fields in a swath of around 2" of rain but the GFS keeps
rainfall totals at around .5-1.25" across most of the area which
either way would provide much needed precipitation for our drought
stricken county warning area. I will note, however, that the WPC has
most of the area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for
Tuesday and also has us at around the .5-1.25" range, so we will
need to keep an eye on the trends as the weekend progresses but with
the ongoing extreme drought, it seems that the risk for flooding
would be minimal at best. Precipitation chances should end rapidly
from west to east by Thursday morning, but some lingering showers
are possible across the mountains. Some models indicate moisture
will continue to linger over the area through the weekend but the
probability of that seems low.

Temperatures will be a little milder after the front moves through
but still in the low 80`s across the lowlands to mid 70`s in the
mountains for most locations with mainly pleasant weather for
the remainder of the period through Saturday as ridging once
again builds back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 143 AM Sunday...

River valley fog has grown more prevalent early this morning
across northern West Virginia and parts of the Ohio Valley. At
the time of writing, PKB had just joined CKB and EKN down into
IFR. Forecast soundings show just enough of a breeze in the
lower levels at CRW and HTS that will cause a delay in fog
production for a few more hours before IFR or worse conditions
encroach on their airfields. For BKW, an area of low level
stratus was developing to their north and could spread some MVFR
CIGs down into the area before daybreak.

The combination of low vsbys/ceilings will gradually improve
after sunrise, returning all sites to VFR for the daytime hours.
Ceilings will begin to lower late Sunday night into early Monday
morning with the encroachment of a disturbance that will open up
the new work week.

Winds will light and variable through the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning, then becoming Medium/High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of overnight
fog/stratus may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
Brief IFR possible in any heavier showers and thunderstorms
Monday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JP
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...28/RPY
LONG TERM...28/RPY
AVIATION...MEK