253
FXUS61 KRLX 290528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
128 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and increasingly humid tonight with the renegade shower.
Severe storms and heavy rain are possible on Saturday. A cold
front crosses Sunday. Dry start to the work week, becoming hot.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1030 PM Friday...

No changes of import at this time this warm night.

As of 800 PM Friday...

After highs in the lower 90s today, lowland temperatures had
barely dipped below 90 F as of 800 PM. Isolated showers did
eventually pop up in the Tug Fork area.

As of 110 PM Friday...

Key Point:
* Severe storms and heavy downpours possible Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

While most of the area should remain dry, a few showers or storms
could sneak into the southern part of the CWA this afternoon. A
frontal boundary is then expected to lift up through the area
as a low migrates across the northern US and southern Ontario
late today into tonight. The passage of this front could bring
additional precipitation into the area overnight before the low
continues northeast and directs a cold front towards the area
on Saturday.

Models point towards a break in activity early Saturday, then
chances of showers and storms increase for the afternoon and
evening as warm, moist air flows into the area ahead of the
approaching cold front. Model soundings project moderate to
strong instability develops by late afternoon, along with
around 30+ kts of shear, and DCAPE values in the vicinity of
1000 J/kg. The best potential for isolated to scattered severe
storms is expected to be in the late afternoon through the
evening. While damaging winds will be the primary concern, there
is also a non-zero risk for tornadoes or hail.

Heavy downpours should also accompany storms as precipitable
water values reach 1.5 to 2 inches. Widespread flooding is not
anticipated; however, poor drainage areas or locations impacted
by multiple storms could experience a localized high water issue
or two.

Temperatures for tonight are expected to be warm, with lows
remaining in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs for Saturday rise back
towards mid 80s to low 90s in the lowlands and 70s to mid 80s
along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Aforementioned storms in the near term period persist into the
second half of the weekend in response to continued passing of a
cold front. While severe weather tapers down at the start of the
short term, lingering showers and storms prevail overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, before finally clearing from west
to east as the front completes its passage.

This sets the stage for the return of high pressure to return
late in the evening Sunday and into the new work week. Upper
level ridging aloft will nestle into the heart of the country
and provide strong subsidence for the forecast area on Monday,
with temperatures in the wake of the front dropping into the
70s. This will be short-lived, however, as height rises promote
warming temperatures back into the 80s and 90s for the majority
of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

High pressure and resultant dry weather continues to prevail on
Tuesday with afternoon highs once again nearing the 90 degree
mark. The upper level ridge begins to break down late Tuesday
night into midweek as a surface low sails down from Canada,
skimming portions of the Great Lakes region and down into the
western Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. This will eventually
track into the forecast area late in the evening Wednesday into
Thursday morning with the passage of a cold front. How quickly
this front slips through the region may impact outdoor holiday
plans for the 4th. Current projections suggest this boundary
hanging tight along the Central Appalachians, with additional
waves meandering along the front through the end of the work
week to maintain at least light POPs beyond the valid forecast
period.

Daytime temperatures remain up in the 80s/90s through the work
week, with very little reprieve in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 128 AM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least 16Z Saturday.
Radar imagery shows scattered light showers, most not reaching the
ground across OH, moving east into WV. Do not expect restrictions
with this activity overnight.

However, unstable conditions emerge this afternoon and evening as
southwest flow advects plenty of moisture to destabilize the
atmosphere allowing for afternoon convection. In addition, an upper
level disturbance will bring forcing to sustain strong to severe
updrafts/downdrafts Saturday afternoon and evening. Brief periods of
IFR conditions under strong gusty winds can be expected under or
nearby thunderstorms with more confidence across the northern sites.
Using Hi-res CAMS models, timed and coded thunderstorms with PROB30
during the late afternoon and evening hours at PKB and CKB. Other
sites may be affected as well, but confidence runs lower at this
time so coded VCTS for now.

SPC maintains a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon across northern and central portions of the area, with a
marginal risk farther south. The main severe threat with
thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts and may last on into
the evening hours.

Light south to southeast surface flow tonight will become light south
to southwest on Saturday. Moderate south flow aloft tonight will
become light south to southwest on Saturday. Low level wind shear is
possible overnight, particularly where gusts do not mix to the
surface, which would most likely be across the lowlands. The low
level flow should preclude fog formation overnight tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Amendments may be needed in showers and
especially stronger thunderstorms Saturday, most likely in the
afternoon and evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        SAT 06/29/24
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/TRM/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM/JLB
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...ARJ