182
FXUS61 KRLX 141511
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1111 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening with
a cold front. An extended stretch of hot weather will begin Sunday
and last much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 AM Friday...

Radar imagery show how weak convection, associated with an
approaching cold front, is trying to develop across OH. Expect
an increase in convection along the front as it crosses east
this afternoon and evening. Adjusted down afternoon temperatures
per latest surface observation trends, and abundant clouds
noted. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 645 AM Friday...

Updated POPs for SE Ohio and the Huntington Tri-State area for
the light showers that are encroaching on that area. Some may
not be reaching the ground, but there are some moderate echoes
that likely are getting to the surface. Otherwise, no major
changes made at this time.


As of 315 AM Friday...

Mostly calm and clear the rest of tonight, though some clouds
are working into our SE Ohio and Mid-Ohio Valley counties. We
still have a few hours where some river valley fog could form,
but none has as of press time. If any does form, it likely will
be more patchy than previous nights.

Another warm day is in store for today, with forecast highs
several degrees above normal for most of the area. Some showers
have been noted over ILN`s area, but have generally dissipated
as they moved southeast towards our CWA. However, as a weak cold
front gradually pushes south and southeast towards the area,
some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
eventually make it into the CWA. Greatest chances still look to
be across the northern half of the CWA, but at least isolated
activity is possible areawide. With surface CAPE over 1500 J/kg
in spots, and modest shear of 25-40 kts possible, a few storms
could have longevity and produce strong winds or marginally
severe hail.

Most storms should weaken and eventually dissipate in the few
hours following sunset, with clearing expected overnight. Areas
that receive rain today could then see some fog tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Dry and hot this weekend.
* May feel like triple digits in the lowlands on Monday.

Surface high pressure edges in from the north on Saturday while an
upper ridge builds overhead. Ridging then remains present over the
area for the balance of the weekend and beginning of the new work
week. While temperatures will already be toasty at the start
of the weekend, even hotter conditions are anticipated early
next week courtesy of the persistent upper level ridge. High
temperatures are forecast to break into the 90s in the lowlands
on Sunday. Monday may be even hotter, with 80s to low 90s
possible along the mountains and mid to upper 90s in the
lowlands. A combination of heat and humidity could make it feel
like triple digits in the lowlands Monday afternoon.

After a dry weekend, increasing heat and humidity reintroduces
the chance for isolated convection Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM Friday...

Key Points:
* Heat lingers much of next week.
* Storms possible in the afternoons.

High pressure is expected to sustain a stretch of hot weather
through Thursday. While dry conditions are anticipated early
each day, hot and humid conditions could initiate some
convection in the afternoons. Any activity should wane again
after sunset.

Models still display some discrepancies on the placement of the
upper ridge and how quickly it departs later in the week. For
example, the ECMWF leans towards drier conditions with the upper
ridge planted overhead while the GFS shows better potential for
periods of showers and storms as the upper ridge shifts farther
east.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Friday...

Aside from a brief reduction at EKN and mention of valley fog in
the CRW METAR, fog has been largely a non-factor overnight. A
few showers may impact HTS in the next few hours, but no flight
category reductions are anticipated.

As a cold front pushes down from the north and northwest this
afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop
across the area, especially the northern half of the CWA.
However, coverage is questionable so POPs were kept on the
lower side. SHRA and TS were not included as prevailing weather
in any TAFs, but VCTS was put in for all TAFs except CRW and
BKW.

With some rain this afternoon/evening, and clearing and lighter
winds tonight, fog is more likely tonight, and was included as
prevailing in a few TAFs. Outside of any t-storms, winds should
remain on the lighter side - generally SW-W`ly ahead of the
front, and N`ly once it pushes through.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium due to uncertainty on fog extent and
timing tonight, and timing/coverage of t-storms later today.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog extent and timing tonight may differ
from the forecast. Thunderstorms could wind up a bit more
widespread than expected.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog on Saturday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JLB
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...FK