949
FXUS61 KRLX 271818
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
218 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and cool tonight under high pressure. Warm and
increasingly humid on Friday. Another cold front crosses this
weekend, with additional storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

Quite a bit of scattered to broken cu remains across the forecast
area this afternoon. This should generally dissipate around sunset.
Otherwise, high pressure building into the area will provide for a
clear, calm, and cool night tonight. Some patchy fog is possible
towards morning, but will quickly burn off by around 12-13Z. On
Friday, surface high shifts east and heights build out ahead of
approaching system. Temperatures and humidity will build across the
region again, with high temperatures on Friday climbing back into
the 90s for many lowland locations. Could have an isolated shower or
storm on Friday, but most areas should remain generally dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Thursday...

There are still some indications that a weak 500mb shortwave
could move across the area Friday night, which may help trigger
some isolated to scattered showers or storms overnight in the
increasingly moist airmass. Add in an approaching front and
diurnal destabilization during the day on Saturday, and we can
expect scattered to widespread showers and storms Saturday in
the warm sector ahead of the front. As the front approaches, a
decent amount of shower and storm activity is likely to persist
Saturday night, and won`t truly start to clear the area until
the front finally crosses late Saturday night into Sunday. SPC
did put us into a Marginal severe risk for most of the area for
Saturday and Saturday night, with Slight risk over some of our
northwestern counties, but a lot of that may be conditional on
some breaks in cloud cover to allow for areas of enhanced
destabilization. If we can get sufficient CAPE for strong
storms, areas further north look more likely to have sufficient
shear to allow for more organized storms and better severe
potential. Regardless of severe potential, deterministic data
and ensemble means are still showing likely PWATs above 2.0
inches, so heavy rain can be expected and WPC maintained the
marginal excessive rainfall risk for the area.

It will remain hot and humid Saturday ahead of the front,
though cloud cover and precip may limit temps a bit cooler than
Friday`s highs. Dew points will remain well into the 60s and
lower 70s in the warm sector, making for some very muggy and
uncomfortable nights. Heat index values on Saturday will we in
the mid to upper 90s across a broad swath of the lower
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Thursday...

Any lingering showers should quickly dissipate or depart to the
east Sunday evening and night, with drier air working into the
area. The drier air and gentle N`ly flow behind the front may be
enough to hold off fog across most of the area, despite the
expected precip Saturday into Sunday, but patchy fog was put
into some of the more protected valley locations where
decoupling may be achieved. Regardless, Sunday night through
Monday night look to be 36 hours of amazing weather considering
we`ll be starting the month of July. We can expect dew points
down into the 50s (40s on the higher ridges), with overnight
lows in the 50s, and Monday`s highs mostly in the 70s to low 80s
(60s in the mountains).

However, the surface high slides off to the east by Tuesday,
bring S`ly winds back into play, and with the upper-level ridge
moving overhead, we`ll quickly return to some summertime heat
and humidity. The area looks to remain dry on Tuesday under the
crest of the upper-level ridge, but as that ridge starts to get
suppressed southward by mid-week, shower and storm chances look
to return to the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Thursday...

Mainly VFR conditions with light surface winds through 07Z, when
patchy MVFR/IFR fog is expected to develop, particularly in
favored river valleys. After 12Z, expect a return to VFR with
light surface winds.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More valley fog may develop overnight that
currently predicted.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
Brief IFR possible with thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL