024
FXUS61 KRNK 230714
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
314 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is situated across the Mid-Atlantic today, wedged
against the eastern face of the Appalachians. A slow-moving
cold front will meander along the Ohio River Valley over the
next several days, triggering rounds of showers and thunderstorm
activity that will persist through much of the workweek. Low
pressure lifting northward from the Gulf of Mexico toward the
end of the week may bring more widespread rainfall to the
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Widespread cloud cover today, with rounds of widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly impacting the
mountains during the morning and afternoon.

2) Clouds may break in spots during the afternoon to allow for
some sunshine. Highs will generally reach into the 70s.

3) Cloudy again tonight with patchy fog and periods of drizzle.

Surface observations indicate that high pressure extends
southward from New England across the Mid-Atlantic this morning,
wedged against the eastern face of the Appalachians. Winds
generally from the east are bringing Atlantic moisture inland,
resulting in widespread low clouds. The combination of moist
air from the Outer Banks region and cloud cover is helping to
maintain mild temperatures overnight, ranging from the mid to
upper 60s for most of our area. Further west, keeping an eye on
spotty showers and a few thunderstorms passing east across West
Virginia ahead of an approaching cold front.

For today, rounds of widely of showers and thunderstorms will
push across southeast West Virginia and western Virginia through
the day. Have entered likely chances for rain in the forecast
for this morning and again during the afternoon given multiple
waves of energy that will approach ahead of the cold front,
however there is low confidence on the actual timing of this
activity. Believe rounds of rainfall will move across the
mountains in broken lines of hit-and-miss activity, with some
locations receiving multiple rounds of rain and others receiving
very little, if any. However, do think that showers and storms
will diminish while advancing east across the mountains due to
downsloping, such that there won`t be much left of the activity
once it passes east of the Blue Ridge. Outside of rainfall, low
ceilings will linger into the afternoon before breaking up or
lifting, but do think some areas will see sunshine for a few
hours during late afternoon before low clouds fill back in
during the evening. Widespread clouds and scattered rainfall
will make for cooler afternoon highs today, generally holding in
the 70s.

Believe most rainfall will diminish for tonight, with only
occasional shower activity. However, pockets of drizzle will be
possible given the continued fetch of moist Atlantic air being
forced into the higher terrain. Overnight lows will hold in the
low to mid 60s.

Confidence in the near term is moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

 - Daily showers and storms for the first half of the week
 - Near normal temperatures

A shortwave coming around a trough in the northern Plains and
on the outer rings of an upper level ridge moving off the
southeast coast, will have rain in the area Tuesday morning, but
should exit by lunch time. A slow moving cold front will
approach the region in the afternoon, bringing a chance for
showers and thunderstorms into the area Tuesday afternoon and
evening. This front is expected to stall over the Tennessee and
southern Ohio Valleys Tuesday night.

On Wednesday, the trough in the Midwest becomes a closed low,
ejecting another shortwave into the area. This wave is expected
to track along the stalled boundary just west of the mountains.
Showers are likely across the mountains with rainfall amounts
ranging between a quarter to a half of an inch Wednesday.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

 - A potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico could bring
impacts to our area on Friday, but confidence is currently low.

 - Cooler than normal temperatures expected this weekend.

A complex weather pattern sets up Thursday and remains into
early next week. A closed low forms over the Midwest by Thursday
with high pressure off the southeast coast. Both systems will
not move much Thursday and Friday. A tropical system coming out
of the Gulf will move in between these two systems. The 00Z
models are suggesting this tropical wave will track across the
Tennessee Valley on Friday then gets absorbed into the the low
over the Midwest on Saturday. The Midwest low pressure is
forecast to move over the Ohio Valleys on Monday. At this time,
forecast confidence is low, therefore will carry chance PoPs
through the period.

Near normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, then
cooler than normal over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

IFR ceilings have set in across the Piedmont this morning, with
cloud bases below 1kft. Ceilings continue to lower as well
across the mountains, with a mix of MVFR and IFR bases. Keeping
an eye on broken lines of showers and a few thunderstorms
advancing east across West Virginia this morning, with the
energy supporting this activity expected to pass across the
service area later this morning into the afternoon.

IFR ceilings will be slow to lift/scatter today, lingering into
mid-afternoon before breaking to VFR in some spots, but
remaining MVFR in others. Low confidence in where VFR conditions
will develop today, but it will be most likely during late
afternoon, and will be only for a few hours before IFR ceilings
redevelop this evening. Timing and location of showers and
thunderstorms will also be challenging, with little run-to-run
consistency in the rapid update weather forecast models, though
better chances will be across the mountains. Much of the
guidance suggests that rainfall will diminish in the downslope
flow as it passes east toward the Blue Ridge.

IFR ceilings will be widespread tonight, with pockets of
drizzle expected. A few showers will move across the area from
time to time as well.

Wind speeds will generally remain less than 10kts through the
period.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

MVFR/IFR stratus and fog are expected to occur in rounds through
at least the middle of the week, and increasingly likely to
persist through the end of the workweek. Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will also continue to pass across the lower Mid-
Atlantic.

Low pressure lifting northward from the Gulf of Mexico toward
the end of the week may bring more widespread rainfall and sub-
VFR conditions to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...NF
SHORT TERM...CG/RCS
LONG TERM...CG/RCS
AVIATION...NF/SH