568
FXUS61 KRNK 150717
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
317 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to cover the Mid Atlantic region today
and Monday as a low develops off the Carolina coast. This low will
track through Virginia Tuesday and Wednesday bringing rain to much
of the area. The chance of rain will linger through the end of the
week, even as the low moves offshore.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

    - Little to no rain today and tonight

No significant changes in the surface and upper air pattern today
and tonight. At the surface, a well-defined wedge of high pressure
extended from New England into the southern Appalachians. Low
pressure was deepening off the Southeast coast. Evening soundings
showed easterly wind through a deep layer of the atmosphere. Water
vapor satellite images depicted a large pocket of mid level dry air
over the Ohio Valley.

Low clouds were filling in early this morning in the wedge.
Bufkit forecast soundings, as well as Hi-Res models have these
clouds eroding during the afternoon, only to redevelop again
tonight. There was a notable sharp western edge to the clouds
over southeast West Virginia, aligning with the drier air aloft
and lower surface dew points on the western downslope side of
the central Appalachians.

All of this cloud cover will limit heating today. Temperatures
will be starting out in the mid 50s to mid 60s. So even with
sporadic heating, highs will reach the lower 60s to upper 70s
which is slightly below normal. Will use persistence as guidance
for tonight`s lows.

Rain will approaching the area from the southeast late tonight.
Confidence in the timing and location is low. Have used a blend of
WPC/NBM to have a slight chance of rain in northern North Carolina
just before sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is rising for rain with heavier downpours possible
east of the Blue Ridge during Monday night and Tuesday.

2) Temperatures will remain below normal due to rain and cloud cover
through Tuesday.

While high pressure remains wedged against the eastern slopes of the
Blue Ridge on Monday, an area of low pressure should continue to
develop off the South Carolina coast. Eventually, this area of low
pressure should move northward into eastern North Carolina by Monday
night and approach Virginia on Tuesday. The models still show a
notable amount of differences with the exact track, which results in
lower confidence of rainfall amounts. Nevertheless, rain chances
will increase during Monday and Monday night. The heaviest rainfall
amounts appear to be east of the Blue Ridge. If enough heavy
rainfall transpires during Monday night into Tuesday, it could cause
a marginal risk of flooding, but the ongoing drought certainly
limits this potential threat.

The area of low pressure could weaken and stall somewhere across the
Mid Atlantic by Wednesday. By that point, an upper level ridge will
build across the Great Lakes, which will block anything escaping
further to the north. Lingering chances of showers should persist
through Wednesday. Temperatures will likely stay below normal for
Monday and Tuesday due to the northeast flow along with increased
cloud cover and rain chances, but there may be a little bit of
warming towards Wednesday as the flow will no longer be out of the
northeast. The surface low could weaken enough to where there is
only an upper level trough lingering overhead on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for ongoing chances of showers through the
end of the week.

2) Temperatures will stay near or slightly below normal for this
time of year.

An upper level trough over the Mid Atlantic should keep conditions
unsettled into Thursday and Friday with daily chances of showers.
With the flow no longer being out of the northeast, there may be
enough instability in the afternoons to spark a slight chance of
thunderstorms. Temperatures should also moderate closer to normal
values for this time of year. An upper level ridge building stronger
to the north will finally push the upper level trough southward by
Saturday, so chances of showers may begin to decrease. Temperatures
could dip a little by Saturday as the flow moves back to the
northeast as another area of high pressure wedges against the
eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes in the surface and upper air pattern today
and tonight. At the surface, a well-defined wedge of high pressure
extended from New England into the southern Appalachians. Low
pressure was deepening off the Southeast coast. Evening soundings
showed easterly wind through a deep layer of the atmosphere. Water
vapor satellite images depicted a large pocket of mid level dry air
over the Ohio Valley.

IFR to MVFR clouds were filling in early this morning in the
wedge. Bufkit forecast soundings, as well as Hi-Res models have
these clouds lifting to MVFR/VFR later this morning, then
eroding during the afternoon, only to redevelop again tonight.

Rain will approaching the area from the southeast late tonight.
Confidence in the timing and location is low. Have used a blend of
WPC/NBM to have a slight chance of rain in northern North Carolina
just before sunrise. Rain will stay south of the local TAF sites
through the end of the 06Z/2AM TAF forecast period.

Winds will continue from the east today and tonight with
occasional gusts from 15 to 25 kts, especially in the
mountains.

Average confidence for visibility and wind.
Below average confidence for ceiling, as well as timing and
location of rain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR at times tonight through Thursday as coastal system
impacts our area with rain at times. The most likely time frame
for rain is on Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 120 PM EDT Saturday...

The Lynchburg ASOS (LYH) is still experiencing data transmission
issues mainly at night. Please use caution when using data from
this site, as some may be missing. Technicians are
investigating the problem.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AMS
EQUIPMENT...AS/SH