979
FXUS61 KRNK 121356
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
956 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will maintain its presence over the area into
Thursday. A backdoor front tracks south through the mid-Atlantic
Friday, before high pressure works in again for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Mix of sun and clouds. A sprinkle possible in the mountains.

Expect a couple of weak impulses to keep some clouds around at
times through the day. 12z RNK sounding showed higher RH in the
850-700 mb range with a pwat of 0.77". Some of the high res
models are trying to pop up some showers along the ridges this
afternoon, but expecting little if any coverage. Added a token
sprinkle here and there but generally will be dry and seasonably
warm today.

Previous discussion from early this morning...

Passing cirrus as well as areas of strato and alto cumulus were
noted on the satellite imagery this morning. BUFKIT soundings
showed some moisture trapped under a temperature inversion below
about 1kft AGL, which may result in fog later this morning
where skies are clear. Another inversion was noted around 7-9
kft, and just under this is where most of the cloud cover was
located. While the lower inversion will lift with sunrise, the
mid level one will linger through the day.

A weak surface trough will sharpen along the VA/WV border today,
helping to turn winds more southerly. This will increase surface
convergence along the mountains as well as boundary layer
moisture, and along with weak lift aloft will result in
continued partly to mostly cloudy skies today, especially for VA
and NC. Kept PoPs under 10%, and with subsidence in place,
virga is much more likely than rain along the higher terrain.

Weak veering of the winds and rising heights indicate warm air
advection processes, which should contribute to highs in the mid
70s to mid 80s today. Expect occasional mid to high clouds
overnight again with weak energy aloft. Lows should only drop
into the mid 50s to mid 60s with higher moisture content in
place.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Warmer than normal temperatures starting Thursday.
3. Mostly a dry forecast.

A weak upper level trough will pass over the area with nothing
more than fair weather cumulus clouds in the afternoon. High
temperature will range in the 80s across the area.

A cold front will approach the area on Friday with a lee trough
developing in the afternoon. As the front crosses the mountains,
a jump to the lee trough is expected. Any storms moving across
the mountains with the front should fade as they move to the
Blue Ridge. A line of convection should redevelop in the central
Virginia piedmont (LYH northward) late in the day. Warm air
advection in ahead of the front will have temperatures in the
80s across the mountains and low to mid 90s in the foothills and
piedmont.

Following the frontal passage Friday night, high pressure will
wedge south into the Carolinas. Temperatures will be 5F-7F
cooler than Friday, but will remain warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Isolated showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, possible
Friday night.
2. Heat wave possible next week.


Surface high pressure will slide off the mid Atlantic coast on
Sunday. An upper level ridge will move over the region by
Monday, bringing heat and humidity to the area. Temperatures
will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s through at least the
middle of next week, possibly longer. The threat of afternoon
and evening thunderstorm are possible each day.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1050 AM EDT Wednesday...

Mainly VFR expected through the period. There was some MVFR
clouds around LYH earlier, but looking at satellite and weather
cams, majority of cloud cover is VFR. Winds take on a more
southerly component as the day progresses but stay below 10 kts.

Forecast confidence is high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR anticipated through the remainder of the week. Except could
be some storms Friday into Friday evening that may bring sub-VFR
especially north of a line from BKW-ROA-LYH. Otherwise mainly
dry conditions expected through Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH/WP