Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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412 FXUS63 KSGF 171105 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 605 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense Fog Advisory in effect for portions of far southern Missouri until 9 AM on Tuesday, with visibilities of a quarter mile or less. Fog expected to linger longest around the Branson, Table Rock Lake, and Cassville areas, fully dissipating around 10 AM. - Fog is expected outside of the Advisory area as well, but it will be less dense, less widespread, and less persistent after sunrise. Especially vulnerable are river valley areas. - Dry and becoming unseasonably warm through the rest of the work week; hottest day on Friday, with highs near and above 90. - Next rain chances (20-35%) come this weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Over the last couple days, between a half inch and an inch and a half of rain has fallen over the White River Valley in Missouri. A moist air mass has remained in place after the dissipation of the low pressure system that brought the rain; in its place, an area of broad high pressure centered over the northeast CONUS has moved the region into southeast flow. This southeasterly wind is coincidentally oriented directly along the fetch of Bull Shoals, Table Rock, and other area lakes. With water temperatures in the mid-70s and air temperatures in the mid- to low 60s, an already saturated air column is being fueled with additional energy from these lakes/rivers. Pair that with an upslope wind, and you get dense reducing visibilities to below a quarter mile in some areas. With persistently low visibilities at some of the local weather observation stations and several area cameras confirming fog in multiple locations across the region, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of southern Missouri, especially within that White River Valley area near the Arkansas state border. Considering fog was first observed at 11:00 PM local time on Monday night, it is expected that fog, some dense, will persist through the entirety of the Tuesday morning commute. Based on when temperatures will climb above their crossover temperatures from Monday, the most likely timeframe for fog to fully dissipate will be between 13-15Z (8AM-10 AM local time). The areas that should expect to see the longest persistence are in and around Branson, the greater Table Rock area, and towards Cassville, because satellite products have consistently shown these areas to have the largest cloud thickness and thus the most dense fog. It is also worth noting, however, that fog can and will be seen outside of the Dense Fog Advisory area. Especially worth watching are our river valleys, with a special shoutout to the Gasconade River basin and the larger Lake of the Ozarks area, which also reaps the benefit of some shoreline-parallel flow. Confidence in widespread fog with visibilities below a quarter mile is far lower in these "special shoutout" areas, and current thinking is that advisory-criteria fog density will only be seen in the narrow corridors of the river valleys, hence the omission from an Advisory at this time. Tuesday will be pleasant after the fog dissipates, perhaps with some lingering low stratus that continues to clear as the day goes on. Highs will range from upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the western half of our County Warning Area, while temperatures will remain in the mid-80s in the eastern Missouri Ozarks. Warm southeasterly winds will remain between 5-10 mph, with <5% chances for precipitation of any kind. Low temperatures into Wednesday will be in the mid-60s out west, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s south of I-44, becoming cooler with eastward extent. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 426 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper-level ridging that is building to our west will reassume control of the large-scale pattern over the central US this week. The storm system in the Carolinas weakens enough on Wednesday that it loses its grip on the flow pattern of the Southeast, allowing a high pressure to build over the Gulf Coast. This high will funnel hot air from the Mexican Plateau into our backyard, raising temperatures through the week. High temperatures closer to the Plains will increase from upper 80s/low 90s on Wednesday to firmly in the mid-90s by Friday, meanwhile in the eastern Ozarks temps will climb from mid-80s on Wednesday to near 90 on Friday. With the building ridge directly west of us, all eyes turn to the trough ejecting into the West Coast at time of issuance for the next chances for precipitation, which come on Friday when the trough reaches the central US. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 556 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Branson (BBG) and the southern Missouri Ozarks/northern Arkansas Ozarks at large quickly devolved into VLIFR fog conditions overnight, and fog in the higher terrain can be expected to remain dense until mid-morning. Between 15Z-16Z is when full dissipation of fog is expected, but it`s not out of the question yet that it could take an hour or two longer to dissipate around the terminal based on its location with respect to the terrain. However, high-res models are in good agreeance on the 15-16Z timeframe. The rest of the Missouri Ozarks can expect some light fog, but areas dealing with terrain will experience the largest visibility decreases. Springfield (SGF) has some mist hanging around the outskirts of the terminal, but with observations bouncing around and sunrise approaching, confidence is low in persistence of potential deterioration into MVFR. Light and variable winds strengthen to 5-10 kts from the southeast through the day Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Record High Temperatures (Joplin): September 17: 95 (1953) Forecast: 90 September 19: 98 (1954) Forecast: 95 Record High Minimum Temperatures (Springfield): September 20: 74 (2018)Forecast: 69 September 21: 73 (1931) Forecast: 68 September 22: 70 (2017)Forecast: 66 Record Lowest Precipitation for Month of September: Springfield: 0.05" (1928) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.04" Joplin: 0.2" (2013) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.00" Vichy/Rolla: 0.19" (2017) September 2024 Thusfar: 0.03" && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ094>098- 102>106. && $$ SHORT TERM...Camden LONG TERM...Camden AVIATION...Camden CLIMATE...Camden/Burchfield