912
FXUS63 KSGF 160905
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- AM rain chances between 30-70% along and east of the Highway
  65 corridor, with highest chances and accumulations (as much
  as an additional 0.5") furthest south. Chances decrease
  gradually through the day Monday, but remain above 30% through
  nightfall. A few rumbles of thunder could be possible in the
  east.

- West of Highway 65, Monday`s rain chances are much lower
  (20-30%), but a sprinkle or two is not out of the question.
  Chances decrease with westward extent.

- A warming trend beginning on Monday will bring above-normal
  temperatures to the region by mid-week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

A broad, persistent high pressure circulation remains centered over
the northeast CONUS, while a much weaker mid-level low pressure sits
over northern Louisiana. The flow from these two circulations
converges into a southeasterly low-level jet streak of 30-40 kts
that is riding the eastern edge of an inverted shortwave, pushing
from western Tennessee to the northwest through the Missouri
Bootheel. This jet streak is advecting additional moisture into the
eastern fringes of our area, with the RAP progging PWATs of 1.6-2"
upstream.

Weak isentropic ascent with a small boost from mid-level vorticity
advection is providing just enough lift to realize this moisture,
with showers pushing from southeast to northwest along the axis of
the low-level jet streak. These showers have been persistent over
south-central Missouri since Sunday, and are expected to continue
through the day on Monday.

PoPs will remain between 40-60% in the southeastern Ozarks through
the morning commute, with heaviest rainfalls resulting in an
additional accumulation up to a half inch in far south-central
Missouri (Howell, Oregon, Shannon, Ozark counties) through the
end of the day Monday.

Along and east of the Highway 65 corridor remains the focus
area of highest rain chances, though Monday`s afternoon PoPs
further west have been increased to 20-30%, especially from
Highway 65 to the KS/MO border. The small bump in these PoPs was
driven by evening HREF and NBM guidance indicating convective
precip of a trace or more extending just west of Highway 65,
though this would primarily remain confined to areas south of
I-44, and bring minimal if any accumulations. Nonetheless, the
precip footprint expansion trend supported this small bump in
PoPs.

With the showers moving from east to west, precipitation chances in
the east will decrease throughout the day Monday as the driving low
pressure circulation fizzles out and the jet streak becomes
unsupported, and the last showers will dissipate in the evening.
Instability is limited, with the highest CAPE values of the day
unlikely to break 1000 J/kg. Even so, a few rumbles of thunder
are possible out east, though widespread thunder is not
expected.

Because of clouds overspreading the area in conjunction with the
rain, highs temperatures will have a little less spatial
variability this afternoon, ranging from mid-80s in the west to
mid-70s in south-central Missouri. Winds remain generally
easterly and between 5-10 mph, though a brief gust up to 20 mph
in the morning hours isn`t out of the question.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

After the dissipation of the mid-level low on Monday, an Atlantic
low pushing westward into the Carolina coast will bump the
steering high north and away from the Midwest. This makes room
for a ridge to begin building over Texas, which will creep
northward through the work week. Confidence is extremely high in
unusually warm late-September temperatures, with less than a 5
degree difference in max temperature soluions between NBM
members every day through Friday. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the low to mid-80s in the eastern Ozarks and near 90 into the
Osage Plains, and from here temps will continually increase all
week. By Friday, highs will be in the mid-90s in the western
CWA and in the mid- to upper 80s further east. For context,
normal highs are around 80 degrees this time of year.

After Monday`s rain clears out, rain chances are minimal to
nonexistent (<15%) until Friday. This is when global models indicate
the next shortwave may push into the Plains, which is the next
chance for some drought-relieving precipitation out west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

East to southeasterly winds will continue through the TAF
period. Winds will weaken and be light this evening through
tonight. Winds could potentially gust between 15-20 kts on
Monday afternoon, though confidence is low in notable impacts
from these gusts at this time; thus, left out of the TAFs for
now.

There is an area of light rain showers across portions of
south central Missouri, which are spreading east underneath a
low stratus deck. Obs indicate IFR ceilings amidst these
conditions, so the trend of ceilings decreasing from east to
west should be expected to continue. Climatology indicates BBG
can be expected to remain IFR at least until 14Z, and MVFR
through Monday afternoon.

Showers should continue to weaken as they move west, though a
prob30 has been added to the BBG TAF from 15-18Z. Rain is
expected to remain south of SGF and east of JLN, with sub-30%
PoPs through Monday at this time. An isolated rumble of
thunder Monday afternoon is not out of the question either,
especially in the southernmost extent of Missouri.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Record High Minimum Temperatures at Springfield:

September 20:
74/2018Current Forecast: 68

September 21:

73/1931 Current Forecast: 68

September 22:
70/2017 Current Forecast: 66

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden