735
FXUS63 KSGF 132347
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
647 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances (10-40%) continue this afternoon and evening
  primarily east of Highway 65.

- Near to above average temperatures return area wide next
  week.

- 30-60% rain chances east of Springfield Saturday through
  Monday however most places remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Surface observations show the post Tropical Cyclone Francine over
northern Arkansas, which has brought remnant precipitation over
the Missouri Ozarks yesterday into today. 24-hour precipitation
amounts ranged from 0.01-0.1 inch along and west of Hwy 65,
with south central Missouri receiving between 0.5- 1.0 inch and
localized higher amounts. Current radar (as of 2 PM) shows a
band of light precipitation over Taney, Douglas, and Wright
counties. Morning/afternoon showers coupled with overcast skies
and northeasterly surface winds will continue to bring below
normal temperatures through the remainder of the day.
Temperatures across the area during the early afternoon hours
have ranged in the upper 60s to low 70s east of Hwy 65 to upper
70s into the low 80s west of Hwy 65 (warmer over far southeast
KS).

There is a chance (20-40%) for isolated showers and
thunderstorms primarily east of Hwy 63 this afternoon and early
evening. HREF guidance continues to show weak instability in
this area, with MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg. Additional rainfall
should remain light, with areas along and east of Hwy 63 seeing
up to 0.10 inch of rain. Elsewhere, most locations should
remain dry, with a trace to 0.01 inch possible (20%) east of Hwy
65.

Models show the low pressure system slowly making its way back east
into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. While this system slowly
treks east, HREF guidance shows mean MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg,
leading to increased chances of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Current probability of lightning shows a
40-50% chance east of Hwy 65 (<20% west of Hwy 65), with
ensemble paintballs placing the higher confidence of
thunderstorms along and east of Hwy 63. Depending on how slowly
the low progresses, precipitation chances may shift more
westward, however guidance continues to keep the better chances
(30-50%) east of Hwy 65, which is what`s currently reflected in
the forecast.

Current afternoon highs on Saturday are in the mid to upper 70s
east of Hwy 65 and the low to mid 80s west of Hwy 65, however
precipitation location and cloud cover could lower this further.
Will need to monitor how quickly the low progresses eastward.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

As the low pressure system remains over the Tennessee Valley on
Sunday and Monday, with guidance showing the outer portions of the
low nudging back into southeast Missouri, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will once again be possible. Current chances are
higher on Sunday (40-60% pops), with 20-30% chances on Monday.
Again, most precipitation should remain east of Hwy 65.

Once the low continues to progress eastward out of the region, an
upper level ridge is expected to build over the region as the area
finds itself sandwiched between two systems. With mid level heights
rising, a warming trend is expected Tuesday through the remainder of
the week, with highs ranging in the low to mid 80s (eastern Ozarks)
to the upper 80s and into the low 90s (west of Hwy 65).

Guidance shows a potent upper level trough progressing over the
Rockies towards the end of next week, which could bring much needed
rainfall over areas west of Hwy 65 where moderate Drought conditions
currently exist. Large uncertainties still exist between ensemble
members, so we`ll continue to monitor potential rainfall locations
and amounts as we get closer to this timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Mulitple decks present late this afternoon with ceilings ranging
from 006-030ft as moisture wraps around the slowing circulation
of Francine. Initial look at 00z ksgf RAOB yielded that low
levels have further moistened but had yet to saturate.
Confidence though that ceilings will become LIFR particularly
along/north of plateau as NNE upslope winds further saturates
the boundary layer.

Some but not all models support surface saturations so a bit
less confidence with degree of fog formation overnight but
anticipate at least patchy if not widespread 1-3 miles rapidly
forming after midnight along the Plateau spreading southward
late tonight. The potential for locally dense conditions will
need to be monitored.

Visibilities will begin to improve with sunrise with IFR
ceilings improving by mid morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melto
LONG TERM...Melto
AVIATION...Runnels