065
FXUS66 KSGX 161014
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
315 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough deepening down the West Coast will bring a few degrees of
cooling today and Monday, but it will still be quite warm. Monday
will be the coolest day of the week followed by a degree or two of
warming Tuesday and Wednesday. Hotter weather returns Friday through
Sunday when a ridge of high pressure builds over the Desert
Southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The ridge that brought the hot weather Saturday will move east today
and our weather will trend a little cooler today and Monday as we
come under the influence of a Pacific trough that will move slowly
down the coast. Monday will be the "coolest" day of the week with
high temperatures a little below average for mid June, but still
quite warm with lower desert highs from 100-105, high desert highs
from 85-90, mountain highs in the 70s, valley highs from 75-85, and
coastal highs from 68-74. Tuesday and Wednesday will be a degree or
two warmer each day. This trough will also bring gusty west winds to
the mountains and deserts each late afternoon and evening.

The marine layer will remain fairly deep through Wednesday as a
Catalina Eddy strengthens over the coastal waters. Low clouds will
spread into the valleys each night before retreating back to coast
each afternoon.

On Thursday the trough weakens and lifts north, replaced by a ridge
of high pressure that will build over the desert Southwest and bring
hotter days Friday through Sunday. By next weekend the lower deserts
highs will be back to between 110-115, high desert highs from 100-
105, and high will be 95-100 in the eastern sections of the Inland
Empire. It will also be warmer in the coastal zones, but the shallow
marine layer will moderate temperatures within 5 miles of the coast
where highs will be in the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
160900Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN-OVC clouds with bases 500-1000 FT MSL
covering much of the immediate coast this morning. Bases look to
rise above 1000 ft MSL by 12-15Z as the coastal eddy becomes more
defined, low confidence on more specific timing. CIG impacts most
likely at coastal TAF sites through 15-17Z with local VIS 1-3 miles
in fog on higher coastal terrain. Low clouds expected to clear to
the coast 17-20Z. Higher bases anticipated later this afternoon and
evening with an earlier onset time, likely closer to 1500-2000 FT
MSL and arriving 00-03Z Mon.

Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS through this
afternoon. Areas of wind gusts 25-35 kt from the west on the desert
mountain slopes and into the deserts through Sun, along with weak to
MOD UDDFS.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds may gust to around 20 knots at times in the outer
waters near San Clemente Island each afternoon and evening through
Monday. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected
through Thursday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A combination of a west swell of around 5 feet/9 seconds in the
outer waters and south swells of around 2 feet/16 seconds on Monday
will bring surf of 3-6 feet along with a high rip current risk
through Monday. The surf and rip current risk will gradually lower
on Tuesday.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Moede
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Adams