387
FXUS66 KSGX 162012
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
112 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Near to slightly below average temperatures will occur through the
middle of the week as a trough of low pressure stays over the
western portion of the country. This will also bring breezy
conditions to the mountains and deserts along with greater cloud
coverage west of the mountains. High pressure will reemerge later
this week, leading to above average temperatures for areas away
from the coast once again.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A deepening trough of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will
influence our weather pattern through the middle of the week.
Across Southern California, a coastal eddy continues to spin
across the California Bight, keeping skies more gray near the city
of San Diego beaches. We can expect clouds to begin to push back
inland later this afternoon and evening for most areas within 25
miles of the beaches.

Breezy winds can be expected this afternoon across the mountains
and deserts, with higher winds on Monday as the trough axis
crosses over the West Coast. Winds will not be entirely strong,
but there is a 50-70% chance in seeing winds over 30 MPH on
Monday, slightly less chance later today. Winds will become
lighter by Tuesday morning through the week.

Though the trough axis pushes east into the Northern Plains by the
middle of the week, the troughing pattern will persist across the
West. This is due to an amplified ridge that will build in across
the eastern part of the country this week, where an impactful
heat wave is expected from Cleveland to Boston with humid highs
well into the 90s to near 100 degrees. While the heat turns up
across the East, temperatures will be near to slightly below
average here in Southern California. The marine layer will also be
deeper, leading to greater low cloud coverage each night and
morning for areas near and adjacent to the coast and locally into
the Inland Empire. Minor day to day changes are expected in the
weather pattern per latest model ensembles Tuesday through
Thursday.

The trough will weaken by Friday as high pressure expands into the
desert southwest per latest cluster model guidance. Confidence is
moderate to high that this will bring more warmer weather Friday
into the weekend. NBM guidance shows not too much spread in
ensembles, so this guidance is agreeable. Highs will start to
climb near 5 to 10 degrees again by next weekend with a shallower
marine layer.

&&

.AVIATION...
161915Z...Coast/Valleys...BKN with bases near 1500 FT MSL across far
southern San Diego County. Otherwise, SKC through this afternoon.
Low clouds redeveloping and moving inland after 00z Mon with bases
1500-2000 FT MSL.

Mountains/Deserts...SKC with unrestricted VIS through tonight. W-SW
wind gusts of 20-35 knots, strongest this afternoon through late
tonight. WK-MOD up/downdrafts over/E of mtns.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest wind gusts up to 20 knots will be possible in the outer
waters this afternoon and again Monday afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
A combination of a west swell of around 5 feet/9 seconds in the
outer waters and south swells of around 2 feet/16 seconds on Monday
will bring surf of 3-6 feet along with a high rip current risk
through Monday. The surf and rip current risk will gradually lower
on Tuesday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...EA