Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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137 FXUS64 KSHV 180050 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 750 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Deepening convection across the Bay of Campeche continues to appear more organized within a broad area of low pressure that may eventually become a tropical depression/tropical storm over the next few days. The induced S/SEly flow across our region in response to the deepening low pressure has resulted in tropical moisture surging well inland over much of the western Gulf coast. Considerable heating with afternoon temperatures in the upper end of the 80s to lower 90s is beginning to yield more in the way of convection compared to earlier this morning. Expect this trend of increasing showers and thunderstorms to persist through the rest of the afternoon through early this evening before peak heating subsides. Low temperatures will generally range from the lower to mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies prevailing overnight. The presence of the aforementioned tropical low as it drifts into the NW Gulf will serve to maintain at least low-end rain chances across our region on Tuesday. At a minimum, look for cloud cover to remain plentiful as rich tropical moisture continues to surge northward across the entire western Gulf coast. Short-range progs maintain a gradual W/NW shift of this tropical low, eventually taking it inland along the middle Texas coast. As a result, any heavy rainfall threat will remain to our S/SW with generally low QPF amounts expected across our region through Tuesday night. Due to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs will be slightly tempered on Tuesday with mainly upper 80s to near 90s degrees while lows overnight maintain the lower to mid 70s. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Moving into mid-week on Wednesday, some rain chances will persist across our southern zones even as the tropical low moves farther inland across south central Texas. However, these rain chances will begin to dry up after that with the westward expansion of an upper-level ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic and SE CONUS. This ridge will help propel temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s range by Thursday and Friday on into the weekend just in time for the official start of astronomical summer on Thursday. The heat will be the main weather story from then on through the weekend, and the possibility for heat hazard headlines will certainly need to be considered based on the current forecast. /19/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 745 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the 18/00z TAFS...Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move northwest across the region this evening, bringing brief gusty winds and brief periods of reduced flight categories. Models continue to suggest all precipitation will diminish through the evening hours. However, clouds will remain overnight, with MVFR/IFR cigs possibly developing just before and after daybreak tomorrow. Expect more afternoon CU tomorrow, with some isolated showers/thunderstorms possible before the end of the TAF period. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 89 75 88 / 40 20 10 20 MLU 73 87 72 90 / 30 30 10 10 DEQ 71 89 70 86 / 20 30 0 10 TXK 74 90 73 88 / 20 20 10 10 ELD 71 87 70 87 / 20 20 0 10 TYR 74 90 73 85 / 20 20 10 30 GGG 73 89 73 86 / 30 20 10 20 LFK 73 88 73 85 / 40 40 30 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...20