063
FXUS64 KSHV 231736
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Decided to make some minor adjustments to POPs and Temps to
account for current and forecasted trends. Otherwise, the
remainder of the forecast remains on track. A cool front,
currently located along a line from near Tyler Texas to De Queen
Arkansas, will continue to push eastward today into the region.
However, upper ridging across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE
CONUS will slow its eastward progression. There has been
convection along the boundary all morning, but it has decreased in
coverage and intensity over the past couple of hours. Ahead of
the boundary can`t rule out some isolated showers with daytime
heating, which is already being seen on radar. Although the
convection is diminishing, short-term progs suggest some
additional development will be possible along the front this
afternoon, with the best chances across our SE Oklahoma, NE Texas,
and South-Central Arkansas zones. Because of the boundary, rain,
and cloud cover, expect a gradient in high temps today. Areas
north of a line from Tyler Texas to Prescott Arkansas will
struggle to see highs in the mid to upper 80s. The remainder of
the region should see highs climb into the lower and possibly mid
90s. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The first front of the forecast period is beginning to push into
the region, with showers and thunderstorms gradually increasing
into the afternoon hours. This progression will be slow going,
with afternoon highs today still ranging in the mid-80s to
low-90s. However, with the influx of clouds, rain chances, and
cold air advection, highs tomorrow will drop in the mid and
upper-80s area-wide. Rain chances this short-term will also be
very dependent on front location, with the better rain chances
shifting south of I-20 by tomorrow afternoon.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 114 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

By Wednesday, the much deeper trough and closed low will begin
working SE through the Plains. This second front should push
through the region during the day on Wednesday, leaving much
cooler temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday will only range
in the mid-70s to low-80s, with highs hovering here through
Saturday. Rain chances into the weekend will also heavily depend
on tropical moisture wrapping around this low, and working back
south into the region. At this time, the best chances for rain
appear north of I-20, but this will be subject to change as this
low meanders as well.

The closed low will eventually pull back to the northeast, likely
associated with friction from the tropical disturbance, settling
somewhere in the Midwest. Here, it will keep winds from the north,
and dry air filtering into the region. While afternoon highs will
begin climbing through the weekend, overnight lows will continue
to range in the upper-50s and mid-60s due to the dry air.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing across all but the extreme
northwest portion of our airspace with debris low cloud remnant
from earlier rainfall. A mix of high low and mid cloud remains
near and in advance of a sfc cold front across NE TX into SE OK
and SW AR attm with some scattered light showers continuing across
NE TX into SW AR as well. Meanwhile, developing cu field is
yielding a few showers across WC and Central Louisiana at this
time as well. As we go through the remainder of the day, continued
to prevail VFR ceilings and VSBYS across all terminals but held
only VCSH at the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals through the remainder
of the day. Will handle any redevelopment in advance of the cold
front with AMDs if necessary.

Overnight, reintroduced VCSH across most terminals as the front
slowly moves eastward across our airspace. Introduced MVFR
ceilings at the LFK terminal overnight and would not be surprised
to see IFR conditions at this location. Ceilings will be
borderline VFR/MVFR concerning heights across our I-20 terminal
locations before returning to VFR conditions post frontal towards
the tail end of this 24hr TAF period.

Mostly SSW to SW to W winds today will gradually become WNW to NW
overnight and through the day Tuesday with speeds generally under
10kts through the period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  87  68  85 /  20  30  30  20
MLU  73  89  66  83 /  10  40  40  20
DEQ  62  85  60  83 /  30  10  30  20
TXK  67  86  64  83 /  30  20  30  20
ELD  68  86  63  81 /  30  30  20  20
TYR  68  88  66  84 /  20  30  20  20
GGG  69  87  65  83 /  30  30  30  20
LFK  73  89  68  86 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13