Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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752 FXUS64 KSHV 181748 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Stratus/stratocu continues to slowly lift across parts of East TX while most of our eastern zones remain cloud-free this morning. Expect these low clouds across our western zones to eventually scatter out into a cu field later today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailing this afternoon. Other than a few minor adjustments to sky grids, the remainder of the forecast is on track. Updated text products to have been issued to remove fog wording from earlier this morning. /19/ && .SHORT TERM...AMENDED (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The remnants of Francine have finally move out of the region, as it got absorbed by a deepening trough across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS. Mostly clear skies and light winds have settled across the region in wake of Francine remnants this morning. Short-term progs suggest these conditions could yield widespread patchy fog over the area in the next few hours, before diminishing a couple hours after daybreak. At this time, not expecting widespread dense fog, but we will monitor this closely. Upper ridging will start to build into the area today. Partly cloudy skies and warmer conditions will return to the region, with highs climbing into the lower 90s areawide. Although drier conditions are expected areawide, there could be just enough weakness aloft for an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop today. But, confidence isn`t high enough to include rain chances in the forecast, so decided to go with a 10 percent POP areawide. Quiet and warmer conditions will continue into Thursday as the upper ridge becomes more established across the region. Morning lows will start off in the upper 60s to lower 70s again, followed by partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 90s. /20/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Upper ridging is expected to remain in place from the end of the work week through the early portions of next week. Expect quiet and mostly sunny conditions during this period, with highs in the low to mid 90s, and overnight lows remaining in the upper 60s to lower 70s. As we move into the middle portions of next week, the ridge will flatten out and start to shift eastward, as an approaching longwave trough moves into the Southern Plains out of the Rockies. Long-range progs continue to suggest the trough could make it into our extreme northern sections as early as Tuesday evening, just north of the Interstate 30 corridor, resulting in rain chances across portions of Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent Southwest Arkansas. The trough and associated cool front is expected to push into the region on Wednesday, bringing a return in widespread rain chances. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A cumulus field is in development early this afternoon, with some lingering MVFR conditions/ceilings expected to lift to VFR in the 18z-19z timeframe. Skies will clear into the overnight period, with the potential for few-sct high clouds/cirrus advecting from the NW. Patchy fog is likely again towards daybreak on Thursday. Vsbys are expected to largely remain MVFR, with few-sct MVFR clouds also possible, developing into another VFR cumulus field Thursday afternoon. Kovacik && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 69 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 70 94 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 66 92 68 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 73 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 71 93 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 73 92 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...23