368
FXUS64 KSHV 232046
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
346 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A cool front, currently located along a line from near
Jacksonville Texas to Prescott Arkansas, will continue to slowly push
eastward this afternoon into the region. However, upper ridging
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and SE CONUS will slow its
eastward progression, stalling the boundary across the region
tonight. There had been convection along the boundary all morning,
but it has diminished greatly in coverage and intensity over the
past few hours. But, additional development has started to fire
along the boundary, mainly across SW Arkansas. Ahead of the
boundary, an isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out. Although
it appears a pre-frontal trough has push through the region,
clearing the CU field and leaving behind mostly clear skies.

The front will bisect the region tonight as it stalls out. Some
additional showers or thunderstorms will be possible along the
boundary, but short-term models are keeping convection in more of
an isolated or broken manner. Expect the temperature gradient to
remain overnight, with lows in the low to mid 60s along and north
of Interstate 30, and low to mid 70s over the remainder of the
area.

Models continue to suggest that the front will continue to hang
across the region tomorrow, maybe advancing to along a line from
Lufkin Texas to Monroe Louisiana. Slight to chance POPs will
remain over the region near the boundary. The expected cloud cover
and potential convection should yield slightly cooler temps, with
highs generally in the mid to upper 80s areawide. The front
should finally push through the region by tomorrow night, bringing
slightly cooler temps, with lows in the 60s areawide. /20/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Another cool front is expected to move into the area on Wednesday,
bringing a return in widespread rain chances. Behind the front,
cooler and dry conditions will return, with lows Wednesday night
ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s. The forecast gets interesting
across the lower 48 on Thursday, as models continue to suggest
the arrival of a strong landfalling hurricane. The good news is
that a closed trough across the Ozarks will steer the storm away
from our area. Unfortunately, it looks like the state of Florida
will experience the main force of the system. As the storm moves
across Florida into the SE CONUS, models suggest it will undergo a
Fujiwara interaction with the aforementioned Ozarks trough.
Essentially, this means the remnants of the landfalling hurricane
will move in close proximity of the larger Ozarks trough, and then
try to circulate around it before it gets absorb forming a larger
closed trough. That newly formed larger trough will continue to
meander across the Ozarks region on Friday and Saturday, bringing
some wrap-around precip to the region and northerly flow. The
precip, cloud cover, and northerly winds should yield cooler
temperatures across the region during this period, with highs
struggling to reach the lower 80s. Upper ridging will start to
build into the SW CONUS late Saturday, pushing the closed trough
out of the region and bringing back dry conditions to the area
Sunday and into Monday of next week. /20/


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions currently prevailing across all but the extreme
northwest portion of our airspace with debris low cloud remnant
from earlier rainfall. A mix of high low and mid cloud remains
near and in advance of a sfc cold front across NE TX into SE OK
and SW AR attm with some scattered light showers continuing across
NE TX into SW AR as well. Meanwhile, developing cu field is
yielding a few showers across WC and Central Louisiana at this
time as well. As we go through the remainder of the day, continued
to prevail VFR ceilings and VSBYS across all terminals but held
only VCSH at the TYR/GGG and TXK terminals through the remainder
of the day. Will handle any redevelopment in advance of the cold
front with AMDs if necessary.

Overnight, reintroduced VCSH across most terminals as the front
slowly moves eastward across our airspace. Introduced MVFR
ceilings at the LFK terminal overnight and would not be surprised
to see IFR conditions at this location. Ceilings will be
borderline VFR/MVFR concerning heights across our I-20 terminal
locations before returning to VFR conditions post frontal towards
the tail end of this 24hr TAF period.

Mostly SSW to SW to W winds today will gradually become WNW to NW
overnight and through the day Tuesday with speeds generally under
10kts through the period.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  88  68  85 /  20  10  20  20
MLU  73  89  67  83 /  20  30  20  20
DEQ  63  86  61  83 /  20   0  30  20
TXK  68  87  65  83 /  20   0  20  20
ELD  69  86  64  81 /  30  20  10  20
TYR  69  89  67  84 /  20  10  20  20
GGG  69  88  66  83 /  20  10  20  20
LFK  72  88  67  86 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...13