Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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438 FXUS64 KSHV 140552 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 No changes for this current update, as the previous forecast remains on track. Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will remain over the region overnight. Other than some high clouds debris moving into the northern half of the region from some storms along the Kansas/Oklahoma border, the weather will be quiet over the area tonight. Expect light and variable winds, with lows in the 60s areawide. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures will continue to be the rule through the short-term period as upper-level ridging moves eastward across the Southern Plains and eventually directly over the ArkLaTex by daybreak Saturday. Even though the surface ridge will be weakening, there will still be plenty of subsidence to keep very light winds and mostly clear skies in place. This should also enhance the radiational cooling tonight allowing most places to cool into the 60s. Most of the model guidance remains several degrees too warm for overnight lows. We should rebound nicely again tomorrow with temperatures warming well into the 90s. The models have also trended a couple of degrees too cool for daytime highs, especially in the urban areas. Overall, persistence is the general word to characterize the short-term period. CN && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Upper-level ridging will begin to move east of the area on Saturday. As a shortwave trough ejects from Colorado into the Central Plains, a surface lee trough should become better established bringing southerly surface winds back to the forecast area. As a result, warm and moist air advection should resume from the Gulf of Mexico helping to enhance the warming trend. This should be enough to push daytime high temperatures into the upper 90s, possibly right to the century mark, across much of Louisiana Saturday and Sunday. Moisture levels will still be somewhat meager on Saturday, and winds speeds should increase to between 5 and 10 kts in most areas on Sunday. This should be just enough to keep us below Heat Advisory criteria, but I can`t rule out peak heat index values climbing very near 105 degrees F in a few isolated locations this weekend. As the flow aloft transitions south or southwesterly on Sunday, this should also begin to bring a plume of tropical moisture northward. The onshore flow should result in at least a chance for diurnally-driven sea breeze convection south of a line from Lufkin, to Natchitoches, to Jena beginning Sunday afternoon. This pattern should repeat itself daily through at least the middle of next week. The highest and most widespread rain chances should be Monday afternoon when southerly flow is at its strongest. By Tuesday and Wednesday, surface winds become more easterly in response to a potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche, which will cut off a large portion of the Gulf moisture to our south. There will still be enough of a sea breeze present for rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, but the best chances for any showers or thunderstorms will become increasingly confined to our southernmost zones. Despite the uncertainty in rainfall amounts and thunderstorm coverage, the increased moisture and associated cloud cover should provide some relief from the heat as daytime high temperatures should be limited to the lower 90s Monday through Wednesday. CN && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Though upper level cloud debris is currently moving across the airspace this evening, VFR conditions are expected to remain in place through the period. The upper level cirrus will likely stay in place through sunrise before fading out by the afternoon with SKC just about area wide. Not entirely convinced there won`t be some minor CU development, but for now guidance remains sound on mostly SKC at all terminals. At the same time, and under the ridge influence, terminal winds should trend VRB through the period, generally at or below 5KT. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 73 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 94 70 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 94 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 95 70 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 94 68 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 94 70 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 94 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...53