697
FXUS64 KSHV 180528
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1228 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1036 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Deepening convection across the Bay of Campeche continues to
appear more organized within a broad area of low pressure that
may eventually become a tropical depression/tropical storm over
the next few days. The induced S/SEly flow across our region in
response to the deepening low pressure has resulted in tropical
moisture surging well inland over much of the western Gulf coast.
Considerable heating with afternoon temperatures in the upper end
of the 80s to lower 90s is beginning to yield more in the way of
convection compared to earlier this morning. Expect this trend of
increasing showers and thunderstorms to persist through the rest
of the afternoon through early this evening before peak heating
subsides. Low temperatures will generally range from the lower to
mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies prevailing overnight.

The presence of the aforementioned tropical low as it drifts into
the NW Gulf will serve to maintain at least low-end rain chances
across our region on Tuesday. At a minimum, look for cloud cover
to remain plentiful as rich tropical moisture continues to surge
northward across the entire western Gulf coast. Short-range progs
maintain a gradual W/NW shift of this tropical low, eventually
taking it inland along the middle Texas coast. As a result, any
heavy rainfall threat will remain to our S/SW with generally low
QPF amounts expected across our region through Tuesday night. Due
to persistent cloud cover, daytime highs will be slightly tempered
on Tuesday with mainly upper 80s to near 90s degrees while lows
overnight maintain the lower to mid 70s.

/19/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moving into mid-week on Wednesday, some rain chances will persist
across our southern zones even as the tropical low moves farther
inland across south central Texas. However, these rain chances
will begin to dry up after that with the westward expansion of an
upper-level ridge axis across the Mid-Atlantic and SE CONUS. This
ridge will help propel temperatures back into the mid to upper 90s
range by Thursday and Friday on into the weekend just in time for
the official start of astronomical summer on Thursday. The heat
will be the main weather story from then on through the weekend,
and the possibility for heat hazard headlines will certainly need
to be considered based on the current forecast.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Mid and high level ceilings are plentiful across the eastern half
of our airspace currently with IFR/MVFR ceilings developing
quickly in the vicinity of our NE TX terminals. Given the moisture
in place not to mention the pressure gradient, would expect
IFR/MVFR ceilings to develop areawide the closer we get to sunrise
and can`t rule out an LIFR ceiling or two as well. Those ceilings
should lift throughout the day, eventually becoming low VFR
ceilings. Did introduce VCTS closer to 23z for all terminals near
and south of the I-20 Corridor leaving TXK and ELD out. Did start
convection a little earlier in the day at the LFK terminal. Look
for ESE to SE winds near 10kts with higher gusts by late morning
into the afternoon hours outside of convection today.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  88  76  95 /  10  20  10   0
MLU  72  90  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
DEQ  70  86  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
TXK  73  88  73  95 /  10  10  10   0
ELD  70  87  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
TYR  73  85  74  93 /  10  30  20   0
GGG  73  86  73  94 /  10  20  10   0
LFK  73  85  73  92 /  30  50  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...13