134
FXUS64 KSHV 221121
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Upper-level ridging will remain in place off the Gulf Coast, but
continue to flatten out over the course of the short-term. The
flattening and retrograding of this ridge will coincide with a
deep trough and cold front pushing through the Plains. This cold
front will eventually begin to work into the region by tonight,
resulting in increased shower and thunderstorm chances north of
I-30. These showers and thunderstorms will continue to work east
into Monday morning, before diminishing into the evening hours.

Temperatures will continue to run above average this short-term,
with highs ranging in the low to mid-90s. However, look for a
drastic swing in temperatures in the long-term, as an even
stronger front works into the region.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

By Tuesday night, a much deeper trough and cold front will begin
moving through the Plains, working into the region by Wednesday
morning. Here, the low looks to become cut off and stall somewhere
overhead. This will do two things: keep cooler air filtering into
the region, and allow for narrower bands of heavier precipitation
to form along deeper moisture flow from the Gulf. In turn, below
average temperatures are possible into the weekend, aided by the
increased cloud cover and rain. Additionally, a few locations
could see localized 1-2 inches of rainfall with these heavier
bands. Unfortunately, these amounts will be isolated, and many
locations won`t see much QPF over the next seven days.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the 22/12z TAF update...Surface observations are showing a bit
more locations reporting lower visibility than originally
anticipated. Have added some BR and lower visibility for KMLU
through 22/13z this morning. KLFK has been the other location with
visibility below 6sm this morning, however, multiple non airport
sites are also reporting some lower visibility and BR. Once this
burns off later this morning, VFR conditions should prevail for
the rest of the day. We will see an increase of cloud cover,
something we are already seeing on satellite imagery, from the
northwest through the day and into the overnight hours. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  74  92  72 /   0   0  10  10
MLU  94  71  93  72 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  92  70  85  62 /   0  20  60  10
TXK  94  73  89  68 /   0   0  30  20
ELD  94  70  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
TYR  94  74  89  69 /   0  10  30  10
GGG  93  72  90  69 /   0   0  20  10
LFK  92  71  91  71 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...33