521
FXUS64 KSHV 131714
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1214 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mostly clear skies and abundant sunshine prevail as ridging aloft
and at the surface build over the area. Temperatures have quickly
warmed well into the 80s areawide, and some locations are a few
degrees ahead of schedule. Therefore, the high temperature
forecast for today was raise by a few degrees for select
locations. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast is on track.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday Night)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot and dry conditions will be the rule through the short term
period, as a deeper wedge of drier air has mixed S in wake of the
upper trough passage as it traverses the Middle TX/S LA coasts
this morning. The early morning sfc analysis still maintains sfc
ridging from the Virginias SW through the TN Valley into NE TX,
with drier/more comfortable dewpoints evident in the sfc obs
across much of the region. It isn`t until you move into the SW
sections of Deep E TX into Acadiana where sfc theta-e`s increase,
with the morning satellite imagery depicting an area of cu
development ongoing attm across Deep E TX just SSW of LFK where
moisture convergence has increased in an area of moisture pooling
along the NW to SE oriented H850 trough evident from ECntrl TX
into Cntrl LA. The short term progs suggest that much drier air
will begin mixing SW today as this weak trough axis settled
farther S into SE TX/S LA, with a mostly sunny sky expected over
much of the region.

The morning water vapor imagery also indicates upper ridging that
has been amplifying N into the Four Corners Region from Nrn Old
MX, and remains progged to begin expanding E into the Srn Plains
today ahead of the closed low off the Srn CA coast, as it moves
inland this afternoon and into the Desert SW tonight. Increasing
subsidence and strong insolation will result in a warming trend
commencing today across the region, with readings climbing to or
above normal into the lower 90s. Another comfortable night is
expected tonight as radiational cooling is again maximized beneath
the sfc ridging in place, before the ridge aloft slides farther E
into the Ozarks and into much of the region. Thus, an uptick in
afternoon temps is expected Friday into the coming weekend, with
overnight temps also moderating through the period as well despite
the sfc ridging in place.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The heat should be maximized for the upcoming weekend, as the
upper ridge axis slides E into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley
Saturday, and into the TN Valley/SE CONUS Sunday. In fact, max
temps will near the triple digit mark this weekend over portions
of N LA/Srn AR, even as a weak SSErly low level flow resumes on
the backside of the upper ridge and retreating sfc high. The
increased heat and sfc theta-e will result in heat indices
ranging from 100-105 degrees this weekend, before a slight pattern
change begins to start the new work week.

The medium range progs are in surprisingly good agreement slowing
down the surge of tropical moisture surging inland across the SE
TX/S LA coasts, along and NW of an inverted trough aloft/tropical
wave that will drift NNW into the Nrn Gulf. Thus, the increase in
seabreeze convection Sunday afternoon will largely remain confined
across SE TX/S LA, with convection farther N across the Srn zones
more isolated to widely scattered resulting in a lowering of pops
to mainly slight chance for these areas. While this convection
should diminish by/shortly after sunset Sunday evening, a broader
weakness aloft along this inverted trough on the backside of the
ridge will focus more in the way of scattered convection areawide
Monday, although variabilities increase amongst the ECMWF/GFS with
the GFS much drier this morning than compared to recent runs.
Still not confident enough to go with the NBM likely pops for Deep
E TX/Cntrl LA, and thus maintained pops in the chance category
until better agreement and consistency can be obtained.

The remainder of the long term period looks to remain unsettled,
despite the spread amongst the various progs in the overall
synoptic pattern for much of next week. There is some agreement
with the ensembles in maintaining the inverted trough aloft over
SE TX into N LA/Lower MS Valley Tuesday and Wednesday, which would
help focus isolated to scattered mainly diurnal convection over
the region, with the more scattered convection primarily
associated with the SErly seabreeze. Did maintain chance pops
along/S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA through midweek, with
some hint in reduced pops by late week as the upper ridge becomes
re-established over the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley. The
increased cloud cover and resultant convection will also taper
back max temps for much of next week as well, but will still
remain near if not slightly above normal through the period.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the 13/18z TAF update...No major aviation concerns for this
period. VFR conditions look to prevail throughout generally clear
skies and light and variable winds. Satellite imagery is showing
the afternoon CU field well to the west of our forecast area.
There is a non zero chance that our east Texas terminals could see
some of this CU field move overhead this afternoon, however,
confidence is very low in this happening, hence the SKC throughout
the period. /33/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  96  72  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  65  94  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  65  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  95  70  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  64  95  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  69  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  95  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...33