Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
004 FGUS74 KSHV 151742 ESFSHV 161142- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1242 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 ...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range probabilistic outlook for the Neches River basin of East Texas... In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during the next 90 days. For example...the Mud Creek near Jacksonville Texas flood stage is 9 feet. There is a 50 percent change the Mud Creek will rise above 6.6 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations valid for August 15, 2024 through November 12, 2024 Location FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Mud Creek Jacksonville 7E 9 2.2 2.2 3.7 6.2 6.6 6.9 7.5 8.1 10.3 East Fork Angelina River Cushing 4N 15 8.5 9.4 9.8 11.0 13.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.2 Angelina River Alto 8E 29 11.8 11.8 14.2 15.3 16.2 17.6 21.0 22.2 28.1 Attoyac Bayou Chireno 3E 14 5.0 6.3 6.7 9.7 11.3 13.3 14.8 17.6 20.6 Ayish Bayou San Augustine 10S 12 5.5 6.9 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.5 11.8 13.2 16.1 Neches River Neches 4NE 12 4.0 4.8 5.6 7.7 8.6 10.4 12.3 13.7 14.4 Alto 8SW 16 5.6 6.0 8.3 9.4 10.6 11.3 14.1 15.5 16.0 Diboll 4S 12 4.7 5.8 7.8 8.7 9.8 11.5 13.4 14.1 15.4 Rockland 26 5.3 6.5 7.5 8.7 10.9 12.3 13.5 18.8 27.6 Location 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% ------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- Lk Palestine 345.0 345.1 345.2 345.3 345.3 345.4 345.5 345.9 346.0 This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These probabilities also account for the current river flows and soil moisture conditions. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with long range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the internet at this URL: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address URL is all lower case). Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third Thursday of every month. $$ 88