822
FXUS64 KSJT 241945
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
245 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Hot and dry is the name of the game for west central Texas...with
upper level ridging firmly in control over the southwestern U.S.
It will be mild tonight, with temperatures only dropping into the
mid to upper 70s. Rinse and repeat for Tuesday afternoon, with
temperatures ticking a couple of degrees warmer than today. Highs
will be in the 98-103 range, with the highest readings across the
Concho Valley and Big Country. The main issue will be feels like
temperatures especially across portions of the Big Country where
heat index values may reach or exceed 105 degrees. Will hold off
on a heat advisory with this forecast package given the
uncertainty with how high dewpoints will be. But will continue to
monitor dewpoint trends and issue an advisory with the next
forecast package if heat index values continue to trend up.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The summer doldrums for West Central Texas will be the main
weather story for the next 7 to 10 days, with generally hot and
dry conditions prevailing across the area. The upper level ridge
axis centered over Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma for the start
and middle of the week will gradually weaken slightly for the
weekend and then recenter closer to the lour Mississippi Valley
for early next week. That brief weakening over the weekend may be
enough to allow a few storms to sneak into the Panhandle and
Oklahoma and then perhaps south of the Red River into the northern
Big Country. Will continue the slight chance of POPs mentioned
for Saturday and Sunday.

The hot temperatures will continue with readings generally 98 to
103 across West Central Texas. Will flirt with Heat Advisory for
Tuesday and Wednesday in a few counties across the Big Country and
Heartland, where dewpoints are forecasted to be a little higher
and drive heat index values up a few extra degrees.
Evapotranspiration (pulling moisture up into the atmosphere from
moist soils and green plants) will play a role in this so there is
a little uncertainty is just how effective this will be. Will
hold off on a Heat Advisory for now and get a better feel for how
dewpoints react the next few afternoons.

As the ridge weakens slightly over the weekend, it may be enough
to allow highs to drop back closer to seasonal normals in the 95
to 100 range. They likely start to climb back above the 100 degree
mark as the ridge re-strengthens next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the next 24
hours. South-southeast winds will occasionally gust to around 15
knots through the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     78  99  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  77 101  77 103 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    75  97  76  99 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   76  97  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  78 101  78 102 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       74  96  75  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       75  96  75  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...42