Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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731 FXUS64 KSJT 190744 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 244 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Hot and Dry Again Today... Not much to change to the forecast, as what we have out their today will be very similar to what we have seen all week long. Upper level ridge will remain in place and may even strengthen a little, with 850 mb temperatures forecast to inch up a little for this afternoon. This should mean that afternoon highs may be a degree or two warmer than what we have seen, pushing a few areas up towards the upper 90s. First thought is that San Angelo (102 in 2019) and Abilene (99 in 1956) will remain a few degrees below their record values but will need to watch. Continued south to southeast winds off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to feed low level moisture into the area and surface dewpoints are creeping upward. Lows tonight likely above the 70 degree mark once more. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Expect hot and mainly dry conditions through Saturday as a strong upper level ridge centers over the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be above normal with highs in the 90s. Will see a change in the pattern as the ridge breaks down with weak cyclonic flow setting up over our area and a cold front moving into the area by Sunday night. The global models indicating a stronger upper level trough middle of next week. However, The ensembles are weaker with this system and still have time to watch. This all means increasing upper level support, some instability and abundant moisture leading to the NBM giving low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms early to middle of next week. Also, cooler temperatures from Sunday onward with highs in the 80s to lower 90s Sunday and mainly 80s next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 A similar pattern to what we saw early Wednesday morning, with low clouds and MVFR cigs expected to develop and push north into the Edwards PLateau and perhaps Concho Valley just after sunrise Thursday morning. Should again be short lived with low clouds dissipating by mid to late morning with VFR skies then prevailing. South to southeast winds will also continue and will also continue to be gusty at times during daylight hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 97 73 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 97 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 96 72 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 97 73 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 93 71 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 94 71 95 69 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07