859
FXUS64 KSJT 231720
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Much cooler today...

The main story in the short term forecast will be how much cooler
the area is behind a cold front that sparked showers and
thunderstorms yesterday and continue early this morning. Highs
today will be mainly in the 70s. We will continue to have
southwest flow in the mid and upper levels to start the day, with
northerly flow at the surface. This will give us mostly cloudy
skies to start the day, as the current showers and thunderstorms
exit the area during the early morning hours. As the upper trough
axis slowly moves over the area and to the east, northwesterly
drying flow will move in aloft, and we should see slow clearing
during the afternoon from the northwest to southeast. As the cold
front attempts to retreat back to the north tonight, models do
show at least a 20% chance for additional showers and maybe a
thunderstorm or two this evening, so have kept some slight chance
PoPs in the forecast for this. Overnight lows will be slightly
cooler, mainly in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Another strong low pressure system will move across the eastern
portions of the Great Plains on Wednesday. This will swing another
cold front into the area on Wednesday, which will keep
temperatures a bit cooler for the remainder of the work week. High
temperatures look to be in the upper 70s to middle 80s. This
portion of the forecast is the part we are highly confident in.

What is less certain, however, is the track of this upper level
low pressure system. Our models show some interaction of this low
pressure with a tropical system moving inland over the
southeastern U.S. This interaction may shift the track of the
main upper level low pressure and/or tropical system. The
attendant rainfall will be highly dependent upon this support.
Given the most recent models runs, some rainfall across our area
seems reasonable. However, chances will remain lower (30-40%)
until better confidence is had. Our models have become a bit lower
with respect to the rainfall totals as well. It`s worth noting
that the Weather Prediction Center has removed west Central Texas
from another Marginal Risk (5% chance) of excessive rainfall
leading to flash flooding on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall
totals of a couple tenths to a half an inch may not support as
much of a risk of flash flooding. We will have to keep an eye on
this scenario for changes in the next day or two.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

IFR conditions are currently present at all terminals across the
area. Rain showers are still impacting the KJCT terminal as of 18Z
but these are weakening and moving off to the east, causing
little impact to visibilities. Ceilings are expected to improve
over the next few hours, gradually lifting back VFR by late
afternoon. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible
for KABI, KSJT, and KBBD tomorrow morning between 10-18Z. Showers
and storms will also be possible for these sites during that
timeframe but have left mentions of these out for now due to
continued low confidence in development. Light northerly winds
this afternoon will become light and variable for all terminals
overnight through tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     62  86  63  82 /  20  40  30  10
San Angelo  64  87  65  84 /  20  40  30  10
Junction    66  88  65  85 /  20  40  30  20
Brownwood   63  86  63  82 /  20  40  30  10
Sweetwater  63  86  65  82 /  20  30  30  10
Ozona       66  86  65  85 /  20  20  20  10
Brady       65  86  64  82 /  20  40  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50