569
FXUS64 KSJT 012346 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
646 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Currently, we have temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees,
with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is yielding
CAPEs in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range across the area, along with
effective bulk shear values of 35 to 50 knots for the most part.
The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed
over the higher terrain to our west. These storms are expected to
move east toward our area during the evening hours, but skeptical
about how much progress they will be able to make into our area,
as they will be moving in during the evening hours as that
instability starts to wane. But, considering the combination of
instability/shear available, will include a mention of severe
weather potential for our western areas this evening, with the
best chances in Crockett County. The main concerns will be large
to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts.

For Sunday, similar conditions will yield another unstable
atmosphere by mid to late afternoon. So, we will have another
chance for isolated to widely scattered storms developing to the
west of the area, and moving into our western counties during the
late afternoon/evening hours, with some of these storms capable of
producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

For Sunday night, the combination of an upper level disturbance,
a dryline to the west and strong/locally extreme instability will
result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the area during
the evening. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards
being large to very large hail and damaging winds.

Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this
week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern
Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be
upper 90s to around 105 Tuesday through Thursday. Please follow
heat safety precautions. Expect slight cooler temperatures Friday
and Saturday with highs in the 90s to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Expect the thunderstorm activity in parts of far west Texas and
east of the Davis Mountains to remain west of our area, with the
possible exception of western Crockett County. With considerable
cirrus blowoff from this convection, much of our area will have
high cloud coverage this evening and early tonight. Late tonight
and early Sunday morning, expect low cloud development and
expansion over a good portion of our area, with MVFR ceilings. By
mid-to-late Sunday morning, low cloud cover should break up.
Where lingering cloud cover persists further into the day,
ceilings should be above 3000 ft. Winds will be mostly from the
southeast tonight, and south to southeast on Sunday. With the
exception of a few gusts early this evening, wind speeds should be
generally in the 5-10 knot range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  89  72  96 /  10  20  30  10
San Angelo  70  94  74  99 /  30  10  30  10
Junction    72  95  76  99 /  20  10  20  10
Brownwood   70  88  72  91 /  20  20  20  10
Sweetwater  70  90  73  97 /  20  20  30  10
Ozona       70  91  74  97 /  40  10  20  10
Brady       70  89  73  93 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...19