Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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508 FXUS64 KSJT 160458 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A weak 500mb shortwave trough across northeast Texas tonight will move eastward Sunday allowing the 500mb subtropical ridge across northern Mexico and west Texas to build eastward in its wake. This will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas tonight into Sunday with west to northwest flow prevailing aloft. At the surface...the dryline will remain well to the west of the CWA tonight and Sunday. Low pressure across west Texas will provide a relatively strong pressure gradient across west central Texas especially on Sunday. Expect breezy southerly winds Sun afternoon as a result. Temperatures Sunday will be above normal especially across && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Hot and dry conditions will persist into early next week. Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will climb into the upper 90s to around 102 degrees across the western portion of the forecast area, with slightly cooler highs across the eastern half. Then a potential pattern change is on tap for the middle to latter part of next week. An expansive mid-upper level ridge will be in place across the southeastern and eastern United States. Meanwhile, we continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Whatever ultimately develops will likely move across south Texas around the middle of the week. Deep easterly flow around this system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into the region, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.7-1.8 inches. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as this moisture interacts with an upper level disturbance. Given the uncertainty in the ultimate evolution/track of the Gulf system and subsequent rainfall amounts for our area will continue to advertise a 30-40% chance of PoPs in the Thursday/Friday time frame. With the increasing rain chances and expected cloud cover temperatures will be much cooler, with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Wednesday through Friday. Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Expect mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. A few hours of MVFR ceilings are possible at the KJCT terminal Sunday morning. Also, a few Hi-Res models are indicating widely scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into the Concho Valley during the early morning hours. Currently one severe storm north of Midland, moving southeast. Will keep an eye on radar trends for possible amendments for the KSJT terminal, but no thunder in the TAF for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 74 94 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 73 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 73 92 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 75 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 73 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...21