265
FXUS64 KSJT 151938
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
238 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A weak 500mb shortwave trough across northeast Texas tonight will
move eastward Sunday allowing the 500mb subtropical ridge across
northern Mexico and west Texas to build eastward in its wake. This
will continue to provide subsidence across west central Texas
tonight into Sunday with west to northwest flow prevailing aloft. At
the surface...the dryline will remain well to the west of the CWA
tonight and Sunday. Low pressure across west Texas will provide a
relatively strong pressure gradient across west central Texas
especially on Sunday. Expect breezy southerly winds Sun afternoon as
a result. Temperatures Sunday will be above normal especially across

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Hot and dry conditions will persist into early next week.
Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will climb into the upper 90s
to around 102 degrees across the western portion of the forecast
area, with slightly cooler highs across the eastern half. Then a
potential pattern change is on tap for the middle to latter part
of next week. An expansive mid-upper level ridge will be in place
across the southeastern and eastern United States. Meanwhile, we
continue to monitor a tropical disturbance in the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Whatever ultimately develops will likely move
across south Texas around the middle of the week. Deep easterly
flow around this system will advect abundant Gulf moisture into
the region, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.7-1.8
inches. Isolated to scattered showers and thuderstorms are
possible as this moisture interacts with an upper level
disturbance. Given the uncertainty in the ultimate
evolution/track of the Gulf system and subsequent rainfall amounts
for our area will continue to advertise a 30-40% chance of PoPs
in the Thursday/Friday time frame. With the increasing rain
chances and expected cloud cover temperatures will be much cooler,
with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Wednesday through Friday.
Drier and warmer conditions will return for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate mid level
clouds continue to develop across southeast portions of the CWA
with a few high clouds moving across the rest of west central
Texas early this afternoon. Expect VFR conditions to prevail
across the CWA the rest of the afternoon into this evening as
northerly flow aloft continues to provide subsidence across the
area. Some MVFR conditions may develop across portions of the
northwest Hill Country late tonight into early Sun morning as low

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  75 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   73  92  73  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  75  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       73  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       73  92  72  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...61
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...61