Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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161 FXUS64 KSJT 180812 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 312 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...New LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Early this morning, radar was picking up on two small clusters of showers and storms: one across the Trans Pecos west of Crockett County and the other just east of Lubbock. Both of these clusters are slowly moving east towards our area. Have added some PoPs for far northern portions of the Big Country as well as the Western Concho Valley and Crockett County through the early morning hours. Hi-resolution guidance shows most of the cluster east of Lubbock staying north of our area with the cluster further south gradually dissipating after sunrise. Elsewhere, low clouds are starting to stream northwest out of the Hill Country and will continue to overspread the area through mid to late morning before they mix/scatter out. Most places should see plenty of sunshine by this afternoon. The gusty southeast winds will continue through today, reinforcing low level moisture across the area. This continued presence and even slight increase in moisture will keep highs a couple degrees lower than yesterday with most places topping out in the low to mid 90s. As usual, the western Concho Valley will be the hot spot across the area with temperatures in the upper 90s. With deep tropical moisture surging ahead of the tropical depression in the gulf, there is a very slight chance for highly isolated showers and storms, primarily across the Northwest Hill Country and Heartland today. Most shower activity should stay to our south and east and confidence is too low to increase PoPs to the mentionable category for this forecast package but felt it was worth a mention here. Low clouds will build back in overnight from the southeast with lows holding in the lower 70s areawide. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 ...Heavy rainfall and possible flooding Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night... Models are continuing to show a tropical disturbance developing over the Gulf of Mexico that carries the potential of becoming a tropical depression/storm over the next 48 hours. Model guidance has this system moving from the gulf coast into West Central Texas from the southeast on Wednesday and pushing further west into Thursday. This system poses the threat of bringing prolonged heavy rainfall across portions of West Central Texas Wednesday and Thursday, which can translate to potential flooding mainly south of the I-20 corridor and more likely along the I-10 corridor. The National Hurricane Center is currently carrying a 80 percent chance in their Tropical Weather Outlook for development through the next 48 hours over the southwestern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms that do develop with this system will be extremely efficient given the high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash flooding. There remains some uncertainty with regards to how models are handling ridging aloft to our east, which can hinder some of the heavy rainfall from pushing as far north as current models are showing. By late Thursday night the system will exit the region to the west, allowing upper-level ridging to build back across the area and bring clear and dry conditions back into the forecast. High temperatures are expected to gradually increase into the mid to upper 90s by Monday and back into triple digit territory by next Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area. Scattered to broken MVFR ceilings are moving northwest out of the Hill Country and are expected to overspread the area in the coming hours. MVFR ceilings will begin impacting all sites between 07-10Z before scattering out back to VFR after 15Z. Winds will remain gusty through the period out of the south to southeast with all sites seeing gusts in the 20-30 kt range. Gusts are expected to decrease in magnitude after 00Z tomorrow.| && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 91 71 86 69 / 0 0 10 40 San Angelo 97 72 89 71 / 0 0 20 50 Junction 94 72 85 71 / 0 0 30 70 Brownwood 89 71 83 71 / 0 0 30 50 Sweetwater 94 71 89 69 / 0 0 10 40 Ozona 94 71 88 69 / 10 0 10 60 Brady 89 71 81 70 / 0 0 40 60 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...50