920
FXUS01 KWBC 211954
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 22 2024 - 00Z Tue Sep 24 2024

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Saturday and the Middle Mississippi
Valley/Ohio Valley and Southern Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southern High Plains on Saturday...

A slow-moving front extending from the Upper Great Lakes/Upper
Mississippi Valley southwestward to the Southern High Plains
advances to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley roughly
southwestward to the Southern Plains by Monday evening. Showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the boundary from the Upper
Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley to the Southern High Plains.
Rain will also develop over parts of the Central Rockies, with
some wet snow at the highest elevation. Further, upper-level
energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic and Central Appalachians, also on
Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon. Elsewhere, upper-level
energy will trigger showers and thunderstorms over parts of
Florida.

The front over western Texas and eastern New Mexico will create
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains
through Sunday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Moreover, there is an increased
threat of hail, two inches or greater over the area.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain
over the Southern High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern High Plains through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

On Sunday, the threat of severe thunderstorms will decrease
slightly. Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5)of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the Southern Plains from Sunday into Monday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes.

Moreover, heavy rain will be associated with the showers and
thunderstorms over two areas. The first area of heavy rain will be
over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys.  Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys from Sunday
through Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

The second area of heavy rain will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most
vulnerable.

Overnight Sunday, weak onshore flow will create rain showers over
parts of the Pacific Northwest.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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