640
FXUS62 KTAE 221502
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1102 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No major changes were made to the forecast this morning as
temperatures appear to be rising as expected. Temperatures will
continue to rise into the mid to upper 90s across the region.
Sensitive individuals should take frequent breaks from the
outdoors and stay hydrated.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overnight radar shows the circulation of AL92 has moved onshore the
SE GA coast with a NW track. Being on the left side of this system
keeps us in prevailing north flow and consequently dry for the most
part. The only exceptions are along the I-75 corridor down the
Eastern FL Big Bend via wrap-around moisture and weak seabreeze
convergence. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Rain chances
dwindle tonight, though showers appear to linger over the Suwannee
Valley.

A stout mid/upper ridge across the Eastern US yields hot conditions
characterized by widespread 90s for highs and peak heat indices up
to about 103 degrees. Expect even hotter weather on Saturday (see
short-term section for more details). Tonight`s lows are slated to
be a couple degrees warmer than this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Unseasonably hot temperatures are expected through the short term
period with mid level ridging extending over our area from the
west. Sunday looks to be the warmest day of the week with the
ridging at its strongest before retreating just a bit on Monday.
Highs on Sunday are forecast in the mid 90s near the coast to the
upper 90s to near 100 inland. Highs on Monday are forecast in the
mid to upper 90s with a few spots still likely reaching 100,
however rain chances begin to increase Monday as well. Heat
indices both days are forecast in the 102-113 degree range, with
heat advisory conditions (>= 108F) possible particularly across
Florida. Lows will also remain quite warm in the mid to upper 70s
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Troughing is expected across the eastern CONUS for most of the
long term period with deep layer tropical moisture remaining
across the area. This will provide a transition to a more
unsettled weather pattern with daily showers and thunderstorms
expected. A couple of fronts are forecast to sag southward
through the Southeast US but should stall out to the north. A few
shortwaves may rotate across the region within the northwesterly
flow aloft and could periodically increase shower and thunderstorm
chances. While still quite warm, highs are forecast to return to
the mid 90s for most of the long term period with lows in the mid
70s. Despite the slightly lower high temps, heat advisory
conditions may still be possible due to a slight increase in
moisture across the Florida counties.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Mostly SKC and lgt/calm winds persist into mid-morning outside of
a mid-level cloud deck south of TLH and pockets of MVFR status
near VLD. Thereafter, fair-wx Cu field develops with northerly
winds around 5 kts. The aftn seabreeze induces a SW wind at
ECP/TLH while showers have the best potential to affect VLD thru
this evening. Thunder is also possible at that site where PROB30s
are maintained with MVFR vsbys. Showers may be invof of TLH/ABY,
though chances are notably lower. Overall, VFR conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Nightly chances of showers and storms are possible over the
waters primarily east of the mouth of the Apalachicola river.
Calming winds at around 5-10 knots will veer around from the
northeast to the southeast this weekend, then out of the west to
southwest next week. Seas will also begin to subside with the
decrease in winds to 2 to 3 feet this weekend, and into next
week. However, long-period swells will continue through the
period as another disturbance develops in the Bay of Campeche
this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Showers with isolated thunderstorms are possible along the I-75
corridor down to the Eastern FL Big Bend today. Otherwise, we are
looking at a dry forecast with high temperatures in the mid 90s away
from the immediate coast. Light northerly winds prevail nearly
areawide, but an afternoon seabreeze induces a south to SW wind from
the coast towards I-10.

Sunday is expected to be quite hot as the forecast calls for inland
upper 90s to around 100 degrees with at or near advisory level heat
indices in the 102-110 range. Highest values are over the FL
counties. Isolated convection is possible across the interstate
corridors east of the Apalachicola/Flint River. High afternoon
dispersions are forecast in response to increasing transport winds
out of the west.

Greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms are on tap for the
region Monday in response to an increase in moisture and a front
sagging from north to south. High afternoon dispersions are also
expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Moisture will start to gradually increase across the region the
next several days (especially across the Florida Panhandle and Big
Bend). This will initially be kicked off by a westward propagating
tropical disturbance that is currently 100 miles off the coast of
Jacksonville Florida. While recent model guidance does not have
this disturbance pushing as far west towards the tri-state area,
moisture is still expected to increase gradually through the
weekend and into next week as an upper level trough and associated
frontal system pulls moisture northward from the Gulf and western
Caribbean into the region. This will generally bring the
possibility for some locally heavy rainfall and a slightly more
active weather pattern for the region next week. Fortunately there
are no flooding concerns at this time given the recent dry
conditions. Overall, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches is
expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   97  73  99  77 /  10  10  30  10
Panama City   91  77  93  79 /   0   0  10  10
Dothan        96  72  99  76 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        96  72  99  76 /  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      95  75  98  76 /  40  40  40  10
Cross City    94  74  95  76 /  30  20  50  10
Apalachicola  89  78  91  80 /  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Bunker