942
FXUS62 KTAE 211043
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
643 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The region is wedged between an inverted trough over the Central
Gulf, ridge of high pressure across the Eastern US, and approaching
compact tropical disturbance about 200 mi offshore from
Jacksonville. As of 2AM EDT via NHC, the latter has a medium chance
(50%) of development into a short-lived depression before moving
onshore later this morning. Regardless of formation, the main effect
from this system is increased rain chances focused primarily along
the eastern portions of the service area.

Showers begin overspreading the Suwannee Valley around midday before
convective coverage increases westward as the afternoon progresses.
The highest PoP is in the SE FL Big Bend with SE AL and parts of the
FL Panhandle/SW GA likely missing out on rain. Precipitation
diminishes this evening, but lingering showers are possible
around the Apalachee Bay zones. A low stratus deck then aims to
move towards I-75 by early Saturday morning. High temperatures are
forecast to be mostly in the 90s while overnight lows dip to
low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Deep layer moisture from the tropical wave will remain over the
area through the weekend. Mid level ridging to the west will help
limit shower and thunderstorm development across the western
portions of the area each day, with scattered to widespread
showers and storms expected across the I-75 corridor and the FL
Big Bend. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these
storms. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to
mid 90s across most of the area, with a few spots even reaching
the upper 90s. Heat indices are forecast to top out in the 101-109
degree range in the afternoons. Low temperatures will also be
uncomfortably warm due to the increased moisture, ranging from the
mid to upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The airmass overhead remains quite saturated through the long term
period with tropical moisture lingering. The mid level high moves
further to the west, putting the region in northwest flow aloft
for most of the work week. A front is forecast to sag southward
towards the area but stall before it gets here. With the retreat
of the ridge and ample moisture, expect fairly widespread showers
and thunderstorms to develop each day. A shortwave may push into
the Southeast around Wednesday/Thursday, which could make things a
bit more interesting in terms of a severe threat. However, it`s
too far out to parse out the specifics at this point. Highs are
forecast to settle into the low to mid 90s each afternoon with
lows generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Mostly SKC are making for continued VFR conds early this morning and
should persist thru most of the period. By the aftn, scattered
showers with some t-storms increase from east to west. The most
likely terminals to be affected are VLD/TLH where VCTS is maintained
starting 18-20Z and PROB30 for -TSRA at VLD into the evening.
Northeast winds around 10 kts or less prevail. An MVFR-IFR stratus
deck then moves west to the I-75 corridor very late in the period,
approaching VLD around 11/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Nightly chances of showers and storms are possible over the
waters. Winds will veer around from the northeast to the southeast
this weekend, then out of the west to southwest next week. Seas
will also begin to subside to 2 to 3 feet this weekend into next
week. However, long-period swells will continue through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The main fire concerns are daily chances for showers/thunderstorms
and high afternoon dispersions. The best rain chances today are
across the FL Big Bend into South-Central GA as a tropical
disturbance moves inland from the NE FL coast. A moist airmass
interacting with the seabreeze and approaching front ushers an
unsettled weather pattern early next week. Northeast winds become
variable on Saturday, then turn southwesterly by Sunday. Conditions
will be hot and muggy with high temperatures in the 90s and triple-
digit heat indices.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Moisture will gradually increase through the next several days. As a
tropical disturbance moves onshore along the northeast FL and
southeast GA, we`ll see an uptick in showers and storms, which may
produce locally heavy downpours, mainly close to the I-75 corridor
and Suwannee River. But, this rain would be beneficial. Next week,
some locally heavy rainfall will also be possible as the pattern
remains rather active. But, at this time, widespread flash flood or
river flood concerns remain low.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   93  74  95  76 /  40  30  60  20
Panama City   92  74  93  78 /  30  30  30  10
Dothan        92  71  95  75 /   0   0  30  10
Albany        94  74  93  75 /  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      93  74  93  74 /  40  20  70  30
Cross City    91  74  93  74 /  70  40  70  40
Apalachicola  89  75  89  79 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...Young