279
FXUS62 KTAE 192343
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
743 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The pressure gradient between Tropical Storm Alberto in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and high pressure over the western
Atlantic will keep winds elevated through the near term. In
addition, a weak low- to mid-level vort max will pass over the area
tonight into Thursday morning. This will bring increasing clouds to
the area late tonight into tomorrow. Thus, with the winds staying
elevated and potential for increasing clouds, have gone above
guidance for tonight. Lows will be in the mid-70s for most
locations.

A bit more moisture sneaks into our area tomorrow with PWATs
creeping back up to near 1.8 inches, which may help kick up a few
showers and thunderstorms mainly south of I-10 tomorrow afternoon.
The easterly flow will pin the sea breeze near the coast and result
in the highest rain chances near the Emerald Coast and in the
southeast Big Bend, but these are only 40 percent at most. Mid-level
dry air remains present though, so if storms can develop, gusty
winds could be possible in the strongest storms. Highs will be in
the lower to middle 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The period begins with persistent easterly flow with a ridge
parked across the Mid Atlantic States out into the Northwestern
Atlantic. To the southeast of this feature is a tropical wave that
will be moving through the Bahamas on Thursday evening and into
the Florida Peninsula on Friday. This will result in a relaxing
pressure gradient, but also signal the increase of moisture and
rain chances as we head into Friday, especially across the eastern
half of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

With the remnant of the tropical wave passing west of the region
on Saturday afternoon, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
shift considerably as a trough moves through the Great Lakes
states on Sunday and pushes a cold front toward the Gulf Coast.
While it is unlikely this front will make it through our region,
it will get close enough to combine with a poleward surge of
tropical moisture Sunday and beyond to lead to an above normal
stretch of rain chances through the remainder of the forecast
period. As a result, PoP/sky grids were adjusted accordingly to
account for the increased moisture with higher rain chances
overnight in the southerly flow over the marine area and then
an earlier start to convection in the late morning/early
afternoon over the inland areas.

Some guidance, including the NBM, was indicating afternoon maxT
values in the upper 90s. Given the likelihood of higher rain
chances, have lowered these values about 2-3 degrees across the
board and as a result, this has led to somewhat lower afternoon
heat indices. While Sunday through Tuesday will still be warm,
the current forecast keeps any advisory level heat indices (108
degrees or greater) out of the forecast for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 743 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight. Increasing
moisture from the east may lead to MVFR ceilings around VLD, ABY,
and DHN after sunrise on Thursday with VFR returning again during
the afternoon. Easterly winds will also become gusty again during
the day Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The tight pressure gradient will keep winds and seas at advisory
levels into Friday morning until the tropical wave coming in from
the Atlantic reaches the Gulf waters and results in a relaxing
pressure gradient. Thereafter, the gradient will relax and winds
will shift to more of a southerly component with gradually
relaxing seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

East to northeast transport winds of 10-20 mph will continue through
Friday before becoming more southeasterly to southerly Saturday.
This combined with high mixing heights will lead to good to
excellent dispersions each afternoon. Min RH values will drop into
the 40s each afternoon. Isolated showers and storms are possible
Thursday, mainly south of I-10. Rain chances increase for Friday and
Saturday. No significant fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

There are no immediate hydrology concerns until the passage of the
tropical wave on Friday into Saturday when rain chances really
begin to increase. That, along with the increase in deep tropical
moisture will lead to conditions where locally heavy rainfall is
possible which could lead to flash flood concerns, especially by
Monday and beyond.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  93  71  93 /   0  20  10  50
Panama City   76  92  73  93 /  10  40  20  40
Dothan        72  91  69  93 /   0  10   0  30
Albany        72  92  69  93 /   0  10   0  30
Valdosta      73  92  71  92 /   0  10  10  50
Cross City    73  94  71  93 /   0  30  30  60
Apalachicola  79  89  75  88 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Friday for GMZ730-
     750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM....Godsey
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Godsey