Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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345 FXUS62 KTAE 170137 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 937 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 933 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 PoPs have been nudged down across the region given current trends as precip struggles to form under northeast flow. Precip has generally remained offshore or just outside of our area across the western FL Panhandle. This trend is expected to continue throughout the overnight period. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 PTC 8 is expected to move ashore the Carolina coast later this afternoon then meander around the southern Appalachians through Tuesday. A stationary boundary located in our Gulf waters will remain positioned there tonight then move inland Tuesday with southerly to southwesterly winds surge across the area. This will also focus convection mainly along and south of I10 around the front in the afternoon hours Tuesday. Thick cloud cover today will transition to more breaks overnight tonight with some sun Tuesday, allowing highs to reach back into the 80s; some upper 80s through the Florida Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The remnants of PTC8 will be meandering across the southeast US while it becomes embedded in a larger upper level trough over the southeastern portions of the US on Tuesday night. A decaying frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the north and western portions of our forecast area into Wednesday. Showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon should slowly diminish into the overnight hours and as the trough slowly pushes east into Wednesday night. Another round of showers and storms is possible during Wednesday afternoon, but with drier mid-level air beginning to move into the northwest parts of the forecast area, rain chances will largely be confined to our Florida counties. With flow out of the southwest ahead of the front, this should help bring sunnier skies to the region so high temperatures will jump back into the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Long term pattern becomes a little more uncertain by the end of the week and into next weekend as the upper level pattern becomes highly amplified. Main uncertainty revolves around how quick precipitation chances return to the forecast after we dry out and warm up for a few days to end the week. Some solutions cut off the upper level low from the short term period while others remain more progressive and have an upper level ridge build across the area during the upcoming weekend. Regardless, there is good confidence that we`ll dry out to end the week and into the upcoming weekend. Looking further into next week some solutions indicate the possibility of tropical moisture lifting north out of the Caribbean. Whether this turns into tropical trouble is way too early to determine at this time, but it`s something worth monitoring late next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mostly VFR conds prevail this TAF period. The lone exception may be at VLD where a TEMPO group for MVFR vsbys is maintained from 9-12Z. Low cigs to IFR are also psbl, but not confident to explicitly fcst. Light east to NE winds turn more south to SW tmrw. The FL terminals have the best potential to be impacted by seabreeze convection, so have aftn VCTS with PROB30s for -TSRA at ECP/TLH. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week with rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. North and northeasterly flow is reestablished later in the week and into the weekend and this could lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent wetting rains and a moist airmass in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected over the next several days, but light amounts up to 0.5 or an inch are possible across the Florida Panhandle. For our rivers, we do have a few along the ACF that are in Action Stage. Local streams may rise if heavy storms develop over them however, none of our mainstem rivers are forecast to reach Flood stage through the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 68 86 70 87 / 10 40 10 30 Panama City 70 85 72 86 / 30 50 20 20 Dothan 66 84 68 86 / 10 30 10 20 Albany 64 85 68 86 / 0 10 10 10 Valdosta 66 86 69 87 / 0 20 10 20 Cross City 69 89 71 89 / 10 30 10 40 Apalachicola 72 83 74 84 / 10 40 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Gonzalez MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Dobbs