Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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908 FXUS62 KTAE 161839 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 239 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 PTC 8 is expected to move ashore the Carolina coast later this afternoon then meander around the southern Appalachians through Tuesday. A stationary boundary located in our Gulf waters will remain positioned there tonight then move inland Tuesday with southerly to southwesterly winds surge across the area. This will also focus convection mainly along and south of I10 around the front in the afternoon hours Tuesday. Thick cloud cover today will transition to more breaks overnight tonight with some sun Tuesday, allowing highs to reach back into the 80s; some upper 80s through the Florida Big Bend. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 The remnants of PTC8 will be meandering across the southeast US while it becomes embedded in a larger upper level trough over the southeastern portions of the US on Tuesday night. A decaying frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary across the north and western portions of our forecast area into Wednesday. Showers and storms from Tuesday afternoon should slowly diminish into the overnight hours and as the trough slowly pushes east into Wednesday night. Another round of showers and storms is possible during Wednesday afternoon, but with drier mid-level air beginning to move into the northwest parts of the forecast area, rain chances will largely be confined to our Florida counties. With flow out of the southwest ahead of the front, this should help bring sunnier skies to the region so high temperatures will jump back into the mid to upper 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Long term pattern becomes a little more uncertain by the end of the week and into next weekend as the upper level pattern becomes highly amplified. Main uncertainty revolves around how quick precipitation chances return to the forecast after we dry out and warm up for a few days to end the week. Some solutions cut off the upper level low from the short term period while others remain more progressive and have an upper level ridge build across the area during the upcoming weekend. Regardless, there is good confidence that we`ll dry out to end the week and into the upcoming weekend. Looking further into next week some solutions indicate the possibility of tropical moisture lifting north out of the Caribbean. Whether this turns into tropical trouble is way too early to determine at this time, but it`s something worth monitoring late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fairly thick MVFR stratocu deck on northeasterly flow is well entrenched through the southeast US. Have continued MVFR cigs through 20Z then lifting those to VFR but it may very well stay entrenched through the afternoon hours. High resolution guidance is decreasing rain chances a little in the panhandle and western Big Bend but kept VCTS/VCSH at ECP/TLH this afternoon. Overnight, some light fog could develop around VLD 10-13Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Light and variable winds anticipated through much of the week with rain chances decreasing after Wednesday. North and northeasterly flow is reestablished later in the week and into the weekend and this could lead to cautionary conditions and higher seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with recent wetting rains and a moist airmass in place. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 147 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Heavy rainfall accumulations are not expected over the next several days, but light amounts up to 0.5 or an inch are possible across the Florida Panhandle. For our rivers, we do have a few along the ACF that are in Action Stage. Local streams may rise if heavy storms develop over them however, none of our mainstem rivers are forecast to reach Flood stage through the next 7 to 10 days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 68 86 70 / 30 10 40 10 Panama City 83 70 85 72 / 60 40 50 20 Dothan 81 66 84 68 / 30 20 30 10 Albany 82 64 85 68 / 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 82 66 86 69 / 30 10 20 10 Cross City 85 69 89 71 / 30 10 30 10 Apalachicola 82 72 83 74 / 60 30 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Scholl MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Dobbs