Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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197 FXUS62 KTAE 221844 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 244 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Ridging aloft and at the surface will keep things pretty status-quo through Monday afternoon. Temperatures will settle in the upper 60s to lower 70s around the region for lows. Daytime highs climb into the lower to middle 90s Monday afternoon. A little added surface moisture should lead to heat indices generally between 97 to 102 at times Monday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Ridging will continue through the duration of the short term with persistent dry and pleasant conditions remaining in place on Tuesday. Large scale subsidence as ridging settles in will keep skies clear with little chances for rain all day with light and variable winds out of the east. Very low chances for rain do exist over our coastal Florida Panhandle counties in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s with daytime highs in the low to mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 The extended forecast continues to remain uncertain as we pass midweek and becomes even more uncertain as we approach the weekend. However, ridging is expected to persist through Wednesday evening with precipitation chances increasing gradually into the weekend as tropical moisture begins to push into the region. Additionally, an easterly surge of wind will develop as early as midday Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens perhaps resulting in advisory conditions over our waters. Similar to yesterday, guidance continues to diverge notably as we approach Thursday and move into the weekend regarding tropical development and the upper level pattern. Models indicate that a deep upper trough may form over the central united states, as was shown yesterday. This upper level pattern would be supportive of a tropical system moving north through the Gulf of Mexico, IF a system were to develop in time. Uncertainty still remains quite high regarding placement of the aforementioned trough and the exact location and time that a system *could* develop, and any change with these variables would have notable impacts regarding what could happen 7+ days from today. Additionally, guidance has sped up with respect to a system forming which, if it continues on this trend, will drastically change the forecast going into the weekend. IF any tropical impacts were to occur, the timeframe would be late this week into the weekend with Thursday appearing possible at the very earliest. Currently, the NHC has highlighted an area with a 70% chance of tropical formation over the northwest Caribbean up to the Gulf of Mexico through the next seven days. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period. VLD may have a period of MVFR Monday morning due to visibility as a bit of fog is possible along the I-75 corridor. && .MARINE... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Light to gentle breezes out of the east-southeast will persist through Wednesday before moderate easterly surges develop over our waters. On Wednesday, attention turns to the potential for tropical development lifting north toward our area, though uncertainty remains high at this time with respect to the track of the storm. Advisory or tropical storm conditions appear possible across our waters beginning as early as Wednesday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Fire weather concerns remain very low at this time. Dry conditions and light winds are expected the next couple of days thanks to high pressure over the region. Pockets of higher dispersions are possible across Georgia and Alabama are possible Tuesday and Wednesday due to higher mixing heights. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 243 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Dry conditions are expected to continue through midweek with no hydrological concerns at the moment. Chances for rain return midweek as tropical moisture begins to enter the area with chances for tropical conditions accompanying this as well. Copious amounts of rain appear possible, though there is high uncertainty regarding the track with changes likely with the forecast. If the storm were to move through our area, riverine flooding and areal/flash flooding would be likely given recent rains over the forecast area. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 74 91 74 90 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 72 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 72 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 92 70 91 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 67 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 73 87 76 86 / 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Reese SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...Reese MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Reese HYDROLOGY...Worster