Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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983 FXUS62 KTAE 171856 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 256 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The upper level high will build over the U.S. Mid Atlantic region, while surface high pressure holds just to the northeast. This will allow dry air to be ushered into the region, which combined with low pressure over the southwest, will lead to a tightening pressure gradient. This will lead to unseasonably strong easterly winds. The weather pattern set up should suppress shower and thunderstorm through the rest of today and into tomorrow, though there could be a few isolated showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure to our northeast will begin to transition to an east-west orientation during the short term. There is also an area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf near the Bay of Campeche that will be moving west/northwestward towards Mexico or the Gulf coast of Texas. Our proximity between the low and high pressure system will lead to a tightening pressure gradient that will increase our winds over both the marine zones and inland regions with moderate breezes of about 15 mph gusting up to 25 mph. There will be a slight chance (about 30%) for PoPs on Wednesday. Although the environment is expected to be dry, there may be just enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or thunderstorm over the Southeast Big Bend region if we can get enough moisture convergence. The high pressure to our northeast will gradually bring in drier air and afternoon temperatures will be in the low to mid-90s. Morning lows will be in the low to mid-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The upper level ridge begins to weaken on Thursday, which will allow for moisture to move back into the region. This will gradually increase our precip chances heading into the weekend. The moisture will arrive from a tropical wave in the Atlantic that has a 30% chance for development over the next 7 days. Whatever does end up happening, the main result will be gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms late this week into the weekend. PoPs for the long term range from 20% on Thursday to about 50-60% by Sunday. As of now, it appears that most of the precipitation will be confined to the Eastern Big Bend and over the marine zones. Temperatures for the long term will have afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s, and have heat indices around 100 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid-70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Cumulus has popped up over the region this afternoon with some showers and thunderstorms being observed around and west of KECP. Just recently,storms have also entered the far eastern portion of our southwest GA counties, near the Fitzgerald area. Current thinking is that showers and thunderstorms should remain fairly isolated in nature due to the dry air from high pressure over head. Kept only the mention of VCTS in KECP; however, KABY and other sites may need to be amended if cells look to hold together. Precip chances begin to wane around sunset and into the evening. VFR conditions should prevail, though brief reductions in cig and vis are possible in stronger showers or storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 It will be a disappointing week to be out on the waters with hazardous boating conditions expected. High pressure to the northeast and low pressure to the southwest will create a tight pressure gradient that will produce unseasonably strong easterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through mid-week. Wave heights of at least 3 feet, and increasing up to 9 feet through the week, and sustained winds up to 25kts and gusting up to 30kts. It is possible for a brief period of Gale force wind gusts during the overnight hours Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds and seas will be on a downward trend as we head into the weekend; however, exercise caution conditions may linger into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Our weather will generally be dominated by high pressure over the next few days; however, the pressure gradient over us will tighten due to low pressure over the Bay of Campeche developing. This will lead to unseasonably strong breezes through the week, deep mixing, and high dispersions through at least Thursday. Mainly dry weather should supress shower and thunderstorms each afternoon, though a few rogue showers or storms could pop up. The pattern may change to a wetter one late in the week, but confidence is low on timing for this. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Dry conditions are expected over the next several days as a ridge of high pressure will influence our weather. It is possible for a few isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop, but these will not produce any flooding concerns. Rain chances gradually increase as we head towards the weekend as a disturbance in the Atlantic approaches the Southeast U.S. coast. It is possible that we could see an increased risk for flooding due to the potential for heavy rainfall this weekend. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 72 92 74 93 / 0 10 0 10 Panama City 74 92 76 93 / 20 10 10 10 Dothan 71 90 72 90 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 71 92 71 90 / 0 10 0 10 Valdosta 71 92 71 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cross City 70 93 71 94 / 0 10 0 20 Apalachicola 79 88 78 89 / 10 20 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT /noon CDT/ Thursday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...KR SHORT TERM...Montgomery LONG TERM....Montgomery AVIATION...KR MARINE...Montgomery FIRE WEATHER...KR HYDROLOGY...Montgomery