314
FXUS62 KTAE 240245
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1045 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The ongoing weather is quiet and will remain quiet through the day
on Wednesday. Folks doing outdoor preparation for the upcoming
hurricane will want to practice heat safety measures, such as
staying hydrated and wearing lightweight and light-colored
clothing.

Otherwise, the 11 pm NHC advisory had only minor changes from the
previous advisory... changes that should not substantively affect
our messaging. Though none of the NHC forecast points explicitly
show the "M" for major hurricane, since the temporal resolution of
the points does not actually capture the landfall intensity this
time around. With a 95-knot forecast point a little inland of the
coast, it is implied that PTC9 is most likely to be a major
hurricane at landfall.

Watches could be issued as soon as 5 AM Tuesday, though 11 AM is
possible if the forecast slows down a little.

The screaming message is to get ready for landfall of a major
hurricane along the northeast Gulf Coast. Outdoor preparations
should be complete by sunset on Wednesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is likely to bring multiple
impacts to our forecast area later this week. Residents should
prepare for significant, life-threatening storm surge; strong,
damaging winds; heavy rain and localized flash and river flooding;
and dangerous beach conditions. Use today and Tuesday to complete
your hurricane preparations. Take time to learn what your
evacuation zone is and review your hurricane plans.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Ridging aloft will persist through the near term yielding warm
and dry conditions once again tomorrow afternoon. Some more upper
level moisture may stream in from the east bringing clouds to the
region as troughing over the Carolinas occurs. Daytime highs will be
in the low 90s with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT & LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

To start the period, increasingly strengthening southeasterly
flow will develop ahead of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (PTC9) as
it treks north toward the area with rain chances gradually
increasing each day through Thursday.

Heads immediately turn to late Wednesday night into Thursday where
tropical impacts along the Florida Panhandle and/or Big Bend appear
increasingly likely. Conditions will begin to deteriorate Wednesday
evening becoming worse as Thursday continues. There does still
remain some uncertainty as we have seen a notable shift with the
ensemble guidance regarding this storm. The difference is due to the
initial positioning of the dominant low center within the Central
American Gyre (CAG) perhaps forming more east than models initially
resolved. Another contributing factor is an upper trough that forms
a cutoff low where yesterday`s guidance had this upper cutoff low
meandering around eastern Oklahoma and retrogressing quickly.
Today`s guidance now has it meandering around eastern AR / western
TN and slowly retrogressing toward the ArkLaTex region, resulting in
an eastern shift with some of the guidance. Much can still change,
though significant impacts across portions of our Florida counties
appear increasingly likely. Strong winds, heavy rain, and
significant life-threatening storm surge appears possible with this
storm across a large area given the size of this storm could be
quite big. The forecast should become more refined come tomorrow.

By now, residents should have already begun their hurricane
preparations. If not, be sure to check your hurricane kits and make
sure that all supplies are fully stocked and/or refreshed. More
preparedness information can be found by visiting
ready.gov/hurricanes and floridadisaster.org.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with light and
variable winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1045 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

At 11 pm EDT, the center of Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 was over
the northwest Caribbean. It will rapidly intensify while moving
northward through the eastern Gulf on Wednesday and Wednesday
night, making landfall likely as a major hurricane on the
northeast Gulf coast on Thursday. Winds and seas will start to
decrease on Friday as the tropical cyclone moves further inland
and weakens. Broad low pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley
on Saturday will support gentle to moderate southwest breezes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Conditions are forecast to remain warm and dry through
Wednesday. Rain chances are expected to ramp up once again come
Wednesday evening as a tropical system is expected to push north
through the area. Fire weather concerns remain low at this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 314 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Primary focus over the next 72-96 hours will be the approach and
impact from potential tropical cyclone nine. The tropical system
is expected to be a quick mover, but the combination of rainfall
ahead of the storm and then along the track of the storm will
likely result in 3-6 inches of rain with isolated heavier amounts
up to 10 inches. Because the vast majority of the rain will fall
in a very short window of time, flash flooding will be the biggest
concern, some of which could be considerable near the core of the
storm. For that reason the excessive rainfall outlook for
Thursday, as the system affects the region, has been increased to
a moderate risk, or level 3 of 4, which is both indicative of the
threat as well as the confidence at this time range.

Some models are suggesting widespread heavy rainfall covering most
or all of our river basins, moving from south to north, and this
could lead to at least minor riverine flooding at many forecast
points. In areas that exceed 6-8 inches of rain, moderate riverine
flooding would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only
include the next 48 hours of rainfall, so it will be until
Wednesday afternoon until all of the rainfall associated with this
system is included in our riverine forecasts.

A flood watch will likely be needed by Tuesday afternoon or early
Wednesday morning for much of the region.

We are also looking at a potentially significant and major coastal
flood threat from storm surge given the forecast with this system
in Apalachee Bay. Apalachee Bay is especially sensitive to surge
and small variations in track, intensity, and forward speed can
cause major adjustments to the surge impacts. Nevertheless, at
this point, confidence is increasing of a significant and major
coastal flood impact in Apalachee Bay in association with this
system. As we get closer to landfall, we`ll have more detail on
specific surge values. Pay close attention to the advice of
emergency management about any evacuation orders that are issued.
Remember, storm surge is especially dangerous and destructive. If
ordered to evacuate, heed the advice of emergency officials. Doing
so can save your life!

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  91  73  86 /   0   0  10  50
Panama City   73  90  74  85 /   0  20  30  70
Dothan        71  92  71  84 /   0  10  20  60
Albany        72  92  72  87 /   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      70  92  72  89 /   0   0   0  30
Cross City    69  93  73  90 /   0   0   0  50
Apalachicola  75  85  77  84 /   0  20  20  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Godsey