865
FXUS62 KTBW 250711
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024
A strong U/L ridge over the southern plains and desert southwest,
which extends across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula, will
continue to gradually retrograde over the next couple of days.
A weakness in the subtropical ridge will develop along the eastern
seaboard which will allow a weak U/L trough to sink south over
the Florida peninsula Tuesday night and Wednesday. An associated U/L
disturbance will also approach north Florida on Thursday and may
enhance shower/thunderstorm activity across the northern nature
coast.

A bit of uncertainty in the longer range.  Friday and Friday
night, a S/W disturbance will slide across the northern plains and
northern Mississippi Valley inducing ridging downstream across
the southern Mississippi river valley and southeast U.S. Although
this will act to fill the east coast trough, a weakness may
remain over the Florida peninsula. This could effectively trap a
pool of deeper moisture over the region which would continue the
pattern of scattered/numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
If the weakness does develop, the U/L ridge will finally take
hold over the forecast area early next week which would trim back
pops a bit.

At the surface, weak westerly flow is expected to develop today.
This will promote scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop along
the coast during the morning hours, spreading inland and
increasing in areal coverage during the afternoon. The relatively
weak flow will continue the potential for slow moving storms
capable of producing heavy rain and localized flooding of streets
and poor drainage areas. Tonight, the westerly flow will likely
allow scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over
portions of the near shore waters late tonight which will advect
locally onshore the coastal counties during the early morning
hours...again spreading inland and during the afternoon hours.
Similar pattern on Thursday with the caveat for higher pops
possible across the northern nature coast as the U/L disturbance
moves over the southeast U.S enhancing large scale lift in that
region.

As has been mentioned, quite a bit of uncertainty for the forecast
over the weekend. Boundary layer flow looks like it will weaken as
the gradient collapses...which is contrary to guidance 24 hours
ago. With potential pool of residual deep layer moisture over the
forecast area, the combination of the two would promote the west
coast sea breeze boundary to push very slowly inland with
scattered showers/thunderstorms developing during the late
morning/early afternoon hours over the coastal counties. Outflow
boundaries from initial convection would likely play a role in
further convective initiation as they intersect while pushing
inland. The weak flow would also provide the potential for
boundaries pushing back toward the coast late in the day with
additional late day/evening showers and thunderstorms. The weak
flow will also create likelihood of locally heavy rain. Again,
highly uncertain forecast over the weekend.

By next week, the U/L ridge is expected to build back over the
region. The increasing large scale subsidence will cause
daytime temperatures to climb several degrees and will suppress
convection a bit, but would still expect scattered mid/late
afternoon showers and thunderstorms, gradually dissipating during
the evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Predominately VFR conditions will prevail. However, expect
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop over the
near shore waters late tonight and move locally onshore with LCL
MVFR CIGs and VSBYs. Most likely terminals to be impacted would
be FMY/RSW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the coastal counties during the morning/early afternoon hours and
may impact all terminals with the exception of LAL with LCL MVFR
CIGs and VSBYs. The shower/thunderstorm activity will push slowly
inland and may impact LAL by mid afternoon. Thunderstorms this
afternoon will be capable of producing LCL MVFR CIGs and IFR
VSBYs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Winds and seas expected to remain below SCEC levels through the
week as relatively weak westerly flow will prevail. Main hazard
will be locally gusty winds and rough seas due to thunderstorms,
primarily during the overnight and early morning hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected through the week as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values above critical levels each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  91  79 /  40  40  60  20
FMY  90  77  90  78 /  60  50  60  20
GIF  94  76  92  76 /  70  40  60  20
SRQ  90  78  90  79 /  50  50  60  30
BKV  92  74  91  75 /  40  30  50  20
SPG  92  82  91  82 /  40  50  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hubbard