Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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922 FXUS62 KTBW 110526 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 126 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... The complex and wet pattern is beginning to set up this evening as the features are coming in phase. The upper longwave trough down the Eastern Seaboard continues to dig through the Deep South and into the N Gulf pushing a surface frontal boundary and active weather into N FL shunting the Bermuda high well S into the S Bahamas. These features are interacting with a weak tropical wave depicted on surface plots from the Yucatan Peninsula bending back into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Deep convection formed in several areas on the eastern side of the wave earlier today and continue this evening. An early look at the TBW 00Z sounding and FL ACARS data are showing the dry air aloft is quickly eroding in C and SW FL as the southerly flow low level flow deepens bring the tropical airmass from the NW Carib by tomorrow morning. Models trends have increased PoPs earlier tonight but not QPF values and have updated the grids and forecasts. The ongoing forecast looks on track for Tuesday and beyond and will continue to closely monitor the latest data and update products as needed. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Numerous to widespread showers currently across the terminals. Lightning activity has greatly decreased over the last couple of hours but showers have become more widespread during this timeframe. Due to this, started most terminals with either SHRA or VCSH. Conditions have been MVFR to even IFR in these heavier showers with VFR outside of these conditions. Will continue to monitor trends and add VCTS or TS if needed in amendments. Latest guidance suggests more showers/storms developing around the 12-15z timeframe and added VCTS or TSRA after this timeframe. Timing each of these rounds of showers/storms will be extremely difficult but tried to accomplish this in the TAFs. Winds generally be from the south throughout the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 SW flow in place today will shift to more southerly overnight, with tropical moisture lifting over the area and remaining through the rest of the week along a stalled boundary in place across south Florida. This will allow for periods of rain with an isolated occasional thunderstorm for Tuesday through the rest of the period across the waters, with the greatest coverage across the southern waters. No headlines are expected, but winds and seas will be locally higher near the storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Deep moisture moving into the area will bring periods of rain across the area for Tuesday through the end of the week, with higher rain chances continuing into the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 85 78 86 78 / 100 80 80 70 FMY 84 77 86 77 / 100 90 90 90 GIF 85 75 86 75 / 100 70 80 60 SRQ 85 78 86 77 / 100 80 90 90 BKV 88 73 88 74 / 90 60 80 60 SPG 85 80 86 79 / 100 80 80 80 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley