496
FXUS62 KTBW 130027
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
827 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Most of the convection has seamer down across the CWA with only a
few storms left over the interior. This trend should continue over
the next few hours, but model guidance bring back showers and
storms overnight and into the early morning hours. Then, chances
continue to increase throughout the day with showers moving across
on/off with a few breaks in between. An additional 2-3 inches of
rain is anticipated on Thursday, especially in portions SWFL. In
terms of temperatures, it should be similar to today with upper
80s south and low to mid 90s elsewhere.

A few adjustments to the POPs were made, otherwise, the forecast
remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A difficult forecast with lots of uncertainty around the timing
and reformation of showers and storms across terminals. Most of
the convection is now inland and south with only a few storms
developing along weak outflow boundaries, which should dissipate
over the next few hours. Some activity is expected to develop
later tonight and into the early morning hours of Thursday,
perhaps continuing on and off through the day. Intermittent MVFR
to IFR conditions are anticipated during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  78  89 /  50  60  50  90
FMY  76  87  76  87 /  60  90  80 100
GIF  76  89  75  90 /  50  70  50  90
SRQ  77  89  76  89 /  70  80  70  90
BKV  72  92  72  92 /  40  60  60  80
SPG  80  89  80  90 /  60  60  60  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close