718
FXUS62 KTBW 122334
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
734 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A difficult forecast with lots of uncertainty around the timing
and reformation of showers and storms across terminals. Most of
the convection is now inland and south with only a few storms
developing along weak outflow boundaries, which should dissipate
over the next few hours. Some activity is expected to develop
later tonight and into the early morning hours of Thursday,
perhaps continuing on and off through the day. Intermittent MVFR
to IFR conditions are anticipated during this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Drier air to the north and an extremely moist airmass to the south.
Today`s weather has been dramatically different across a relatively
small geographic region. Central Florida has been the transition
zone between a continental and tropical airmass. A shortwave over
the deep south is forcing the drier continental air south into the
northern Gulf and across the northern half of the peninsula as a
tropical wave lifts over the southern half of the state. In
response, TPA ACARS soundings are showing a PW of 1.65 inches. By
contrast, KRSW is showing 2.65 inches.

Southwest Florida continues to be favored for heavy rainfall through
at least tomorrow. Meanwhile, it looks more like convection will be
more scattered across Central and N Florida, developing along the
seabreeze boundary this afternoon. The moisture axis may still lift
northward (at least that is the latest thinking) as the tropical
wave propagates to the NE, bringing back a better potential for more
widespread rainfall again tomorrow.

As the weekend approaches and the tropical wave lifts north, ridging
will build back in aloft. This favors more typical diurnal
convection later into the weekend and next week. Once this happens,
the low-level flow will transition from a WSW to a ESE flow. This
typically favors more afternoon/evening convection along the west
coast. However, if the upper-level flow is more NE and advects a
drier airmass aloft in, this may limit the overall convective
potential. For now, though, it looks like decent rainfall coverage
is likely as the rainy season continues into next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  90  78  89 /  50  60  50  90
FMY  76  87  76  87 /  60  90  80 100
GIF  76  89  75  90 /  50  70  50  90
SRQ  77  89  76  89 /  70  80  70  90
BKV  72  92  72  92 /  40  60  60  80
SPG  80  89  80  90 /  60  60  60  90

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     Flood Watch through Thursday evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close