185
FXUS62 KTBW 140751
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
Issued by National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
351 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Other than a few showers currently offshore radar is currently
quite across the inland areas. CAMs still indicate showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop inland late morning into the
afternoon. However it should be noted that the HRRR is the driest
of the guidance with initiation later in the day. The heaviest
rainfall is still forecast Charlotte and Lee Counties and will
keep current Flood Watch going.

Over the next couple days, a transition will take place as the
trough axis is replaced by an upper-level ridge. As this happens,
winds will shift from a WSW to eventually an ESE pattern, with more
typical diurnal convection settling in for at least a few days. Some
drier air could even make this convection more isolated in nature,
at least initially. Overall, though, more typical summertime
conditions return and last into next week.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Showers are beginning to develop across central terminals,
primarily PGD and SRQ. This trend will continue with a further
development of showers and the return of high IFR to low MVFR
ceilings across all terminals through the early morning hours.
After the mid morning, daytime heating combined with ample
moisture should allow thunderstorms to begin developing,
especially across SWFL. Convection is anticipated to be on and off
through the afternoon and early evening hours. However, some
guidance tries to keep it over southern terminals into the night.
Vicinity showers were kept into the late night hours in line with
this guidance and forecaster thinking. MVFR/IFR conditions along
with erratic and gusty winds are possible near storms. South to
southwest winds prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  90  79 /  60  60  60  30
FMY  89  77  88  76 /  70  70  70  30
GIF  94  75  92  76 /  60  50  70  30
SRQ  93  78  90  77 /  50  60  60  30
BKV  95  72  94  73 /  50  50  60  40
SPG  93  81  90  81 /  50  60  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal
     Lee-Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...LCH