Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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510 FXUS62 KTBW 170724 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 324 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough spins over the southeast U.S. early this morning, with Atlantic ridging extending toward the Florida Straits. At the surface, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remains over the Carolinas while a weak boundary persists over Florida. For the rest of today, some relatively drier air will remain over the local area, helping to limit overall convective coverage. Low-level flow will be relatively light and onshore, leading to the best rain chances over the interior. The trough aloft generally persists over the southeast through much of the week before ridging builds over the area for the weekend. PTC 8 will slowly weaken over the next day or so while the boundary over Florida lingers through the week. Light onshore flow will continue through the next few days, then shift to northerly for the end of the week and then back to northeast to east for the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Overall, we`ll see rain chances each day, but some lower PWs will continue to limit coverage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Some periodic MVFR cigs will be possible early this morning, then VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. A few showers will be possible early in the day for coastal sites, but best thunderstorm chances will be for KLAL and southwest Florida terminals this afternoon. && .MARINE... Light winds continue for the next several days with no headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 40 20 FMY 92 77 92 76 / 40 20 60 40 GIF 93 75 93 75 / 40 10 50 30 SRQ 91 76 91 76 / 20 10 40 30 BKV 91 71 91 72 / 20 0 40 20 SPG 90 80 91 79 / 20 10 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ 05/Carlisle