919
FXUS62 KTBW 171220
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
820 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Rather light flow early this morning will become southwest to west
this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. With
just enough moisture, precipitable water ranging from about 1.6
inches north to 1.8 inches south, we should see isolated to
scattered convection develop as the sea breeze moves inland with
highest rain chances over the interior and southwest Florida.
Current forecast looks on track with no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 820 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Some areas of MVFR/IFR cigs continue early this morning, then VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the day into tonight.
A few showers will be possible late this morning/early afternoon
at coastal sites, but best thunderstorm chances will be for KLAL
and southwest Florida terminals later this afternoon. Light and
variable winds this morning will become southwest to west as the
sea breeze develops and moves inland this afternoon, then become
light and variable again this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough spins over the southeast U.S. early this
morning, with Atlantic ridging extending toward the Florida Straits.
At the surface, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remains over the
Carolinas while a weak boundary persists over Florida. For the rest
of today, some relatively drier air will remain over the local area,
helping to limit overall convective coverage. Low-level flow will be
relatively light and onshore, leading to the best rain chances over
the interior.

The trough aloft generally persists over the southeast through much
of the week before ridging builds over the area for the weekend. PTC
8 will slowly weaken over the next day or so while the boundary over
Florida lingers through the week. Light onshore flow will continue
through the next few days, then shift to northerly for the end of
the week and then back to northeast to east for the weekend as high
pressure builds in from the north. Overall, we`ll see rain chances
each day, but some lower PWs will continue to limit coverage.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds continue for the next several days with no headlines
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20
FMY  92  77  92  76 /  40  20  60  40
GIF  93  75  93  75 /  40  10  50  30
SRQ  91  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  30
BKV  91  71  91  72 /  20   0  40  20
SPG  90  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley