638
FXUS62 KTBW 182346
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Gusty winds are expected to calm down slightly overnight before
picking back up tomorrow. The strong easterly winds will return
tomorrow along with some of our moisture as an upper level trough
looks to push through. This will help to bring some scattered
showers back into the forecast tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A high pressure system to our north continues to dominate the
weather pattern across the state, keeping things relatively dry
for the rest of today. The main story continues to be the winds,
with a gusty easterly flow persisting throughout the next few
days. This is due to the tightly packed pressure gradients over
our area that are associated with our position between the
presiding ridging to the north and a strengthening low pressure
system out in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected around the lower 90s, particularly
across the Western side of the state due to the strong easterly
winds.

Heading into Wednesday, conditions should remain relatively the same
with just the added potential of some scattered showers in the
afternoon and evening hours as more moisture begins to move in to
our area off the Atlantic coast. This added moisture will likely
begin to bring back a more traditional Florida summertime weather
regime, with isolated thunderstorms possible throughout the end of
this week and heading into the weekend. Temperatures will continue
to be fairly warm with low to mid 90s expected along the Western
half of the state, and the increase in moisture will lead to heat
index values beginning to surpass 100 degrees on Thursday and Friday
during peak heating in the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Large upper ridge centered over the Tennessee River Valley Friday
to slowly sink Sward into the Deep South/N Gulf Coast this
weekend as persistent Central American Gyre holds over the Yucatan
Peninsula. At the surface, models keep the next tropical wave or
general low pressure area in the Bay of Campeche that may
eventually become a W Gulf closed low while W Atlantic high
pressure holds into the Deep South as yet another weak tropical
wave may move towards the GA/SC coast with generally easterly flow
continuing over the FL Peninsula. But model uncertainty abounds
with all these features and will keep typical June diurnal
seabreeze thunderstorm PoPs through the weekend and into early
next week as the warm and humid conditions continue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

We are currently seeing some IFR CIGS at LAL which should lift in
the next couple of hours. Besides that we are expecting VFR
conditions with breezy easterly winds to continue through the
period. Moisture will increase tomorrow bringing with it the
possibility of some afternoon showers with PROB30 added to all
TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions with gusty easterly winds and choppy
seas through at least Wednesday to keep Small Craft Advisories in
effect. Winds begin to lighten Thursday but expect evening surges
and additional headlines may be needed. Winds and seas expected to
subside a bit Fri and into the weekend but remain unsettled and
somewhat bumpy as rain chances increase as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and humid conditions to continue with gusty easterly winds
through mid week with high dispersion values. Winds are expected
to weaken at the end of the week and into the weekend along with
increasing rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  91  77  93 /  20  50  20  60
FMY  77  90  76  93 /   0  50  20  60
GIF  75  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  78  92  76  94 /  10  50  30  60
BKV  75  89  73  94 /  20  50  20  60
SPG  79  89  80  94 /  20  50  30  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Giarratana
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana