748
FXUS62 KTBW 131406
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1006 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues across SWFL as tropical
moisture is pulled northward with a low-level WSW flow. The 12Z
sounding came in with a PW value of 2.14 inches this morning, but
with notable drying above roughly 600mb. Much like yesterday, the
Tampa Bay area is serving as the transition zone from a tropical
airmass to one that is experiencing a larger continental airmass. As
such, the expectation is for widespread shower and storm activity to
continue across SWFL as the Tampa Bay area and Nature Coast see more
typical summertime convection later today. The forecast has been
updated to reflect this.

Considering the environment, the main concern continues to be for
heavy rainfall across SWFL counties specifically, where the flood
watch remains in effect. Otherwise, the atmospheric profile does not
support severe weather. Other than adjustments to the POPs to
capture today`s expected conditions, the forecast remains on
track.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Main deep tropical moisture plume is located across south Florida,
just brushing Lee/Charlotte counties. This will be the focus for
the best potential for additional heavy rainfall today. Long
fetch south to southwest 1000-850MB flow continues highly
favorable pattern for advecting significant transport of moist
unstable airmass over southwest Florida. Mid level moisture
convergence as seen in W/V imagery will also aid convective
destabilization this morning over southwest Florida. Although
main axis of heaviest rainfall may end up developing just south of
the forecast area, proximity to overall boundary axis will be
close enough to warrant high pops/heavy rain threat today across
southwest Florida...and a flood watch continues from Sarasota
county and south including Hardee and DeSoto due to the excessive
rainfall/saturated ground that has occurred during the past couple
of days.

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will advect in off the
Gulf of Mexico along the coastal counties during the morning hours,
mainly from Pinellas county and south, however the main threat
for locally heavy rain across central areas will occur this
afternoon as daytime heating will lead to increasing instability
and scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms developing in
conditionally unstable atmosphere. Highest pops across central
areas will be over the interior due to the onshore flow which will
push activity inland as the day progresses...although numerous
outflow boundaries may still trigger scattered storms back along
the coastal counties late in the day.

Shower/thunderstorm activity will wind down during the evening
hours, but a few showers may persist along the coastal counties
with highest pops again over southwest Florida. Moisture plume
will likely hold over south Florida on Friday and Saturday, with
numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms again likely over
southwest Florida and the interior with locally heavy rain
possible each day.

Surface high pressure is expected to build north of the area on
Sunday which should allow boundary layer winds to shift to the
northeast/east. This will create a more typical summertime pattern
with the main focus being convection developing along the west
coast seabreeze boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours.
Deepest moisture will remain over southwest Florida...which will
be the region with highest pops/best chance for rain. And this
pattern will hold through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue as tropical moisture and
instability streams across the southern half of the peninsula.
Northern terminals like KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL sit right on the
transition zone where the tropical airmass dries out. As such, only
limited activity is expected, in a more typical diurnal pattern
associated with SW flow. For SWFL terminals, moisture continues to
favor convection through the day before a lull this evening and then
additional convection towards tomorrow morning. After tomorrow,
conditions should begin to transition back towards more typical
summertime pattern, with more limited daily impacts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
Main hazard through the weekend will be isolated thunderstorms
which may create locally gusty winds and rough seas. Next week,
easterly flow will develop and potential for a few hours of SCEC
conditions may occur during the evening hours as easterly surge of
wind develops around sunset...weakening around midnight each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
minimum afternoon relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  79  91  79 /  30  30  50  50
FMY  88  76  88  76 /  80  70  80  70
GIF  93  76  93  76 /  70  60  80  40
SRQ  91  76  91  77 /  40  40  50  60
BKV  94  71  95  72 /  40  40  50  40
SPG  91  81  91  81 /  20  30  40  50

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-
     Inland Charlotte-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland Sarasota.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Oglesby